The Washington Post reported that U.S. President Joe Biden has sent senior aides to the Middle East with a critical goal: to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The newspaper cited Hebrew sources indicating that "Israel views the regular exchange of fire between its forces and Hezbollah along the border as unacceptable, and may soon launch a major military operation in Lebanon."
According to the paper, U.S. officials are concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see escalated fighting in Lebanon as key to his political survival amid internal criticism of his government's failure to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people and the capture of around 240 hostages.
White House and State Department officials stated that the threat of Israel attacking Hezbollah has never disappeared, but there has been broader concern about escalation in recent weeks, especially as Israel announced a temporary withdrawal of several thousand troops from Syria. The Washington Post noted that "this withdrawal could pave the way for a military operation in the north."
Another U.S. official indicated that Israeli forces withdrawn from Gaza could be redeployed to the north after sufficient rest and preparation for another wave of fighting. However, the Israeli Air Force is also strained, having conducted ongoing strikes since the onset of the war in October, the official explained, detailing the military intelligence assessment that escalation in Lebanon could lead to the dispersion of Israeli forces.
The official added that pilots are fatigued, and there is a need for aircraft maintenance and re-arming. They would face more dangerous missions in Lebanon than in Gaza, where Hamas has few anti-aircraft defenses capable of downing attacking planes.
Biden has sent his special envoy Amos Hochstein to Israel to work on an agreement to reduce tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border. The immediate goal is to develop a process to start negotiations over a border demarcation agreement, which could define where and how both sides deploy forces along the border in an attempt to stabilize the situation.
U.S. and French officials are in discussions with the Lebanese government about a proposal that would place control of part of the Israeli-Lebanese border in the hands of the Lebanese government, rather than Hezbollah, to help alleviate Israeli concerns, according to two sources familiar with the talks.
