The UK Met Office reported on Friday that the global average temperature may temporarily exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius next year, a significant event in climate history that could raise concerns at the UN Climate Change Conference "COP28" being held in Dubai. The office stated that this year is almost certainly the hottest on record and that 2024 may be even warmer.
The forecast for the global average temperature in 2024 is expected to range between 1.34 and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900. However, reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius level in a single year does not mean that the world will exceed the long-term average global warming threshold, but this forecast adds urgency for those calling for immediate action in the COP28 discussions to reduce emissions causing global warming.
Nick Dunstone, who led the writing of the Met Office's forecast report, said, "The forecasts align with the ongoing trend of global warming of 0.2 degrees Celsius every decade, driven by a strong El Niño phenomenon." He continued, "Therefore, we anticipate two more years of consecutive record global temperatures. For the first time, we expect a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius. It is important to understand that a temporary exceedance does not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement."
The World Meteorological Organization stated last month that temperature increases this year could reach around 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with extreme weather and record ice loss giving a glimpse of what could happen if the long-term cap is exceeded.
In November, a team of scientists, including from NASA and Columbia University, indicated that the world could surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold this decade. Most emission models from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius during the 2030s.
