Every week, there will be consecutive meetings between President Michel Aoun and the designated Prime Minister Najib Mikati, although this does not necessarily lead to the formation of a government. The difference between former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Mikati is that the former lacked the ability to maneuver and discuss; he would withdraw at the first point of disagreement with the president. In contrast, Mikati possesses the capacity for maneuvering and accommodating, especially in his dealings with the president, as everything is open to discussion for him.
After the first meeting and the leak of the governmental formation, which was followed by tense responses from sources close to the designated prime minister, Mikati visited Baabda again, and the crisis dissipated on the verge of denying the leak of the formation. What hindered the initial formation was not the leak of names, contrary to what was implied. Leaking is natural in a country that does not keep many secrets; however, the change in names that occurred, particularly concerning the Minister of Energy while retaining the Finance Minister from the duo's share, was provocative for the "Free Patriotic Movement." The reaction was not surprising, especially since this change was made without prior discussion with the president.
During yesterday's meeting, the two presidents moved past the leak crisis and continued the governmental discussions, with Aoun presenting his suggestions to Mikati, who left without making a statement to the media, signaling his first negative reaction to the meeting. Visits will repeat, and amid visits, there will be tension, denials, and retreats, as the month will pass and the next will follow until the presidential elections are due. Here lies the core problem and its essence: who will make concessions to form a government that will last only a few days? Even if such a government were to be formed, the subsequent steps of preparing its ministerial statement and winning the confidence of the Parliament would take a long time, while the time remaining until the presidential election is short.
How can anyone rational expect the "Free Patriotic Movement" to facilitate the formation of a government under Mikati? Despite the current government being formed, the relationship has never been positive between the leader of the movement, Gibran Bassil, and Mikati, who is held responsible for the paralysis of his government and the formation of another. On the other hand, Bassil sees no benefit in facilitating Mikati's mission, who raised the red card against him since he took over the leadership of his current government.
Meanwhile, the Shiite duo remains inactive, believing the matter does not require intervention at this point. The designated prime minister submitted a formation and requested time from Aoun to study it. Deep down, the duo knows that forming a government borders on the impossible, as neither Mikati wishes to form a government for two months, nor will Bassil facilitate the matter. The solution may be to keep the caretaker government until the end of the term and the election of a new president. Aoun, who has been cornered and fought by all means by everyone, will not offer at the end of his term what he has refrained from providing throughout his years in power, and he will not compromise; on the contrary, the remaining period of his term is expected to be the toughest, exposing the facts.
Conversely, this is a period during which Mikati does not feel obligated to concede. He rejects any meeting with Bassil and would prefer if consultations had not taken place, emphasizing from the outset that they are unnecessary. Since his government transitioned to caretaker status, Mikati's eyes have turned toward the presidential elections, focusing on who will take over the presidency, who will have the decisive voice in their selection, and the influencing factors. Mikati understands that his efforts to form a government will ultimately result in the continuation of the caretaker government until the end of the term, and the idea of forming a government with presidential powers has diminished due to the confidence that the presidential elections will occur on schedule, making concessions to form a government that cannot address any of the ongoing issues unjustifiable. Betting on it is akin to betting on a losing horse.
