As vaccination campaigns continue worldwide against the novel coronavirus, the CEO of the German pharmaceutical company BioNTech predicted on Wednesday that Europe would reach herd immunity "by late August." He warned that children would remain at risk, as the vaccine has so far only been approved for individuals over the age of 16.
Ugur Sahin stated during a video call with reporters that more than half of Europe's population needs to be vaccinated in the next two months, allowing governments to consider easing lockdown rules. He expects "50-60% of the population to be vaccinated by the end of June."
A New Normal Soon
He predicted a "new normal" where individuals could move freely and most people would have very good immune protection against the virus. He referenced studies from Israel, which is sharing its vaccination campaign data with Pfizer, showing that vaccinated individuals rarely develop serious illness and are less likely to transmit the virus to others. While the required threshold for achieving immunity through vaccination is still under global discussion, experts say that vaccinating over 70% of the population would significantly disrupt the transmission of the coronavirus among them.
Sahin revealed that data from vaccinated individuals indicates that immune responses weaken over time, and a third dose may likely be needed.
Annual Third Dose
He noted that studies show the efficacy of the "Pfizer-BioNTech" vaccine declines from 95% to about 91% after six months, adding, "Accordingly, we need a third dose to restore vaccine protection to nearly 100% again." Current vaccine recipients receive a second dose three weeks after the first, although some countries have longer intervals. Sahin suggested that the third dose could be administered 9 to 12 months after the first.
He also mentioned, "After that, I expect it will likely be necessary to have a booster shot annually or perhaps every 18 months."
What About the Indian Variant?
Sahin noted that BioNTech has tested its vaccine against more than 30 variants of the mysterious virus, including the variant first discovered in Britain, and found that the vaccine stimulates a good immune response against almost all variants in the lab. He explained, "In cases where the immune response is weaker, it remains sufficient," but he did not provide precise figures.
In response to a question about the new variant first discovered in India, Sahin said that the vaccine's efficacy against it is still under investigation. He stated, "But the Indian variant has mutations we previously researched that our vaccine is also effective against, so I am confident it is effective against them."
Investigation into Heart Inflammation Cases
Additionally, Sahin revealed that BioNTech is investigating reports of heart inflammation cases among individuals who received the vaccine in Israel, but to date, there are no data suggesting increased risk according to his statement. He said, "We take everything we hear seriously, and the most important principle in drug development is to do no harm."
Approximately 5 million people have been vaccinated in Israel, primarily with the Pfizer vaccine, leading the countries by the number of immunized population.
It's worth noting that Ugur Sahin co-founded BioNTech in 2008 with his scientist wife, Özlem Türeci, and they together decided to shift from cancer research to developing a vaccine for the coronavirus in early 2020 and reached out to Pfizer, which had the necessary expertise for conducting large-scale clinical trials.
