With the deadline for registering candidate lists for the parliamentary elections at the Lebanese Ministry of Interior ending today, local and international attention remains focused on the battle in Beirut's second district (11 parliamentary seats). This district is witnessing perhaps the strongest competition to fill the parliamentary void resulting from the leader of the Future Movement, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, abstaining from running for the first time since 1996, when former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri entered the electoral fray and was later succeeded by his son, Saad Hariri, after his assassination.
The electoral race has intensified, involving six lists, some complete and others incomplete. Among these are two lists: the first, "Beirut Resists," headed by former Minister Judge Khaled Qabani, with former Prime Minister Fouad Saniora playing a role in sponsoring its formation, and the second, "This is Beirut," supervised by the head of the Ansar Football Club, Nabil Badr, allied with the Islamic Group.
The remaining lists are distributed among the “Shiite duo,” which includes candidates who are not Shiite, alongside MP Fouad Makhzoumi, who leads a complete list called "Beirut in the Heart." Additionally, there is an incomplete list led by the "Islamic Charity Projects Association" (the Ahbashi), and another that includes candidates from civil society. However, those sponsoring its formation are attempting to resolve last-minute obstacles that have delayed its finalization before the deadline for list registration at the Ministry of Interior.
In this context, "Asharq Al-Awsat" learned from sources close to civil society movements that representatives from groups speaking on behalf of civil society held an extensive meeting in recent hours that included "Beirut Resists, National Alliance, My Beirut, Observatory, Red Line, Beirut Revolutionaries, and Our Right." Before this, one of its pillars, Hasan Sinno, son of Faisal Sinno, president of the Islamic Charity Projects Association, announced his withdrawal from the elections due to campaigns targeting him by some leftist groups. This was in addition to the "Our Right" group, which demands representation by three candidates instead of two, including a Shiite candidate in their quota, and also insists on representation by a candidate from the Evangelical community in Beyrouth's first district, which is rejected by the resigned MP Paula Yacoubian.
Sources revealed that the civil society list for Beirut II includes the following candidates: for Sunnis, Ibrahim Mneymneh, Hasan Sinno (who later announced his withdrawal, replaced on the list by Fatima Hamassni), Wadah Sadek, Sara Yassin, Iman Tabara, and Rushdi Qabani; for Shiites, Ali Abbas and Mahmoud Faqih, who is opposed by the "Our Right" group, demanding that Shiite candidate Nahida Khalil take his place; for the Orthodox community, former Bar Association president Melhem Khalaf; for Druze, Rima Nasreddin; and for the Evangelical community, Nihad Doumit. Sources pointed out that Tarek Ammar, spokesperson for the "Our Right" group, impeded the formation of a coalition list, stating that negotiations had not ceased, and those responsible for forming a unified list resumed negotiations last night, hoping to resolve last-minute disputes. Otherwise, they would be forced to register their list with whoever is present at the Ministry of Interior.
Thus, the larger political theme uniting the "Beirut Resists," "This is Beirut," and "Beirut in the Heart" lists with revolutionary and change movements lies in their opposition to the resistance axis represented by the "Shiite duo" and the Ahbashi, despite the fact that they did not unify into a single list. This is because the "Islamic Charity Projects Association" is attempting to present itself to the voter in Beirut II as independent and having a political identity, trying to distinguish itself—even if just in form—from its Shiite duo ally.
According to Beirutian sources, the "Ahbashi" politically ally with the Shiite duo in a strategic integrative alliance, agreeing on major issues that extend beyond the internal Lebanese context, including their positions on the Syrian regime and the resistance axis led by Iran. Therefore, their separate candidacies and voting do not necessarily indicate a looming conflict regarding major political options, especially as the "Ahbashi" strive to accommodate the Sunni voter.
Moreover, the reasons the "Ahbashi" try to present to justify their non-electoral alliance with the Shiite duo quickly collapse given their collaboration with the resistance axis in the Tripoli—Minieh—Dhuniye district and also in the Shouf—Aaley district and other districts where they have no candidates. Although the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gibran Bassil, decided to enlist the help of his ally "Hezbollah" and requested their intervention with the "Ahbashi" to clarify what is currently circulating in Beirut I regarding the "Islamic Charity Projects Association" opening up to banker Antoine Sahnaoui, requesting his support for the list he backs in this district, which competes against the "Lebanese Forces," "National Movement," and civil society lists, with the Kataeb MP Nadim Bashir al-Jamil among the candidates.
Although the Beirut I district is witnessing one of the fiercest electoral battles and is considered predominantly Christian, the Muslim vote—specifically the Sunni vote—has a direct impact on the competition expected in this district. This highlights the electoral power that the blue movement holds and whether it will participate heavily in the electoral process, stemming from the strained relationship between its leader, President Hariri, and the "Lebanese Forces" and the "National Movement."
The question remains: will the elections in Beirut II witness a significant turnout at the ballot boxes? Particularly since it holds Sunni weight, unlike the symbolic presence of other sects, except for the presence represented by the Shiite duo, which occupies the second position after the Sunni community. Will calls to refrain from boycotting the elections awaken the Sunni street to fill the void left by the Future Movement’s absence from the electoral contest, especially since opinion polls so far agree that Sunni voter turnout will be lower than during the previous election cycle? Unless an unforeseen surprise emerges to reshuffle the electoral deck, which is what the "Beirut Resists" list, supported by Saniora, is betting on as it begins today to activate its electoral machinery, distributing tasks among its candidates.
It is reported that the "Beirut Resists" list is counting on entering into a cohabitation with the majority of the blue movement's base to convince them of the necessity of participating heavily in the electoral process to thwart the resistance axis from filling the void in the Beirut arena, while the "This is Beirut" list focuses on winning its support, considering itself closer to it than other lists. However, the final decision still rests with the ballot boxes, to reveal whether the turnout will reflect a state of Sunni frustration manifested in a reluctance to participate adequately in the electoral process. Thus, one condition for confrontation is the declaration of political mobilization in the Sunni street to ensure the balance required; otherwise, any disruption of this balance will lead to changing the political face of Beirut, lacking substantial representation in the new parliament.
