Between the test pumping from land to sea in the Israeli Karish field and the upcoming "trial broadcast" of the second version of the presidential election session in Lebanon (on Thursday), Beirut continues its daily life amid suffocated breaths, while the whole country seems to have turned into a "laboratory for guinea pigs." This is in the effort to explore how to avoid the complete failure of the political system, or the plans adopted to attempt to escape the deep financial pit that has made citizens the weakest link.
While attention was focused on remote negotiation diplomacy regarding maritime border demarcation with Israel through U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein, in order to prevent this path from returning to square one and thus avoid escalating war scenarios, what resembled a "preparation" of Energean, the operator of the Karish field, for the pumping of natural gas from the coast to the floating platform en route to future extraction operations, became a significant event yesterday. It reflected signs of Israeli rigidity and at the same time great caution, making Tel Aviv (and Energean) appear to be navigating between "mines" and points in a delicate balance that it did not want to explode a front with Lebanon.
The pumping from land to sea served as a message that Israel is continuing its "agenda" of production from Karish soon, regardless of whether an agreement on demarcation with Lebanon is reached or not—a message that was seen as directed at the "electoral mailbox." The deliberate communication by Tel Aviv through Washington to inform the Lebanese side, and behind it Hezbollah, about the reverse pumping and that this does not mean the start of production from Karish, constituted a strong indication of the unwillingness of both the Israeli and U.S. sides to allow any "misinterpretation" of the test pumping or turning it into a "matchstick" that could ignite the wavering negotiations nearing their conclusion and the relative calm on the front that has been dormant since 2006.
While reports in Lebanon interpreted that the concerned parties had also received a "priority mail" American message warning that any attempts to provoke or sabotage the experimental pumping and targeting the Karish field or the floating platform could provoke a "devastating response," this was seen as part of Washington's efforts to eliminate any potential explosive triggers that could spiral out of control due to a major mistake or decision. Meanwhile, Beirut "did not sleep" and continues, through those tasked with negotiations with Hochstein, to "massage" the demarcation agreement after it appeared to have suffered a "stroke" following Lebanon's submission of observations on the American draft, which Tel Aviv rejected for two essential matters (considering the buoy line as maritime borders and conceding Israel's right to issue permits to operate in the southern part of the Qana field extending south of line 23), and its threat to defer the agreement until after its legislative elections.
Reports indicated that the days following Tel Aviv's rejection of Lebanon's observations witnessed communications via Hochstein that included new revised drafts featuring the rephrasing of legal terms that do not affect the essence of the Lebanese position, in an attempt to bridge gaps and avoid deepening them. All this comes in anticipation of what the coming hours will reveal regarding the "clarification of vision" concerning the real options for Israel, which appears to be stuck between two "fires": either resorting to a demarcation agreement with more concessions—even if adorned—before Lebanon, and behind it Hezbollah, which seems to have gained significant points in the "battle of awareness" and secured a victory with the "glow of its weapon," having implications for the elections; or risking merely agreeing with "initials" on the core of the agreement and leaving the resolution of the observations until after the Israeli November 1 elections, thereby inviting a confrontation that none of its military and security leaders would advise, especially if suspending the agreement isn’t enough to ensure a victory for Yair Lapid and Benjamin Netanyahu prevails over the thunder of his threat to tear the current version of the demarcation.
