Lebanon

Will Israeli Attention Shift to the Southern Front After the Gaza Ceasefire?

Will Israeli Attention Shift to the Southern Front After the Gaza Ceasefire?

A senior Hezbollah official was killed in an Israeli airstrike targeting his vehicle in Syria. Lebanese sources confirmed he was accompanying the party’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, which was also affirmed by a party source. Hezbollah mourned the martyr, Jasser Nemer Qarnabesh, without attributing a leadership title to him. Qarnabesh, born in 1970, was from the eastern village of Zoutar in southern Lebanon, and a Hezbollah source confirmed he had been Nasrallah's aide for more than fifteen years. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the deaths of two individuals believed to be from Hezbollah and the serious injury of a third, a Syrian national working as a driver for the group. This occurred after an Israeli drone targeted a Hezbollah vehicle near a military checkpoint belonging to the Fourth Division on the Damascus-Beirut road, in the area of Jdeidet Yabous in the Damascus countryside. Israeli media also stated that the individual targeted was a member of Hezbollah's air defense unit.

**Psychological Warfare... "The Hoopoe" Part Two**

Hezbollah still believes that the psychological warfare it conducts against Israel—specifically related to disseminating intelligence, photos, and footage of military and strategic sites within Israel—can create a deterrent environment to prevent Israel from expanding Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon, especially after Israel transitioned to the third phase of the war on Gaza. Last month, the party showcased footage from Nahariya to Haifa, including military and security bases among others, and recently published images showing Israeli military sites in the occupied Golan Heights.

The video titled "The Hoopoe: Episode 2 - The Occupied Syrian Golan" contained aerial reconnaissance images of intelligence bases and command posts in the Golan, allegedly captured by drones, along with footage showing Hezbollah operatives leading these drones. Meanwhile, Israeli media quoted a military source estimating that the footage released by Hezbollah was captured about two months ago. Channel 12 stated that alongside the war being waged in the north, Hezbollah is also conducting a psychological war.

Adding to this, the second part of the "Hoopoe" series features quality aerial imaging of various locations in the north, with reports indicating that the reconnaissance drone photographed sensitive areas in Israel.

**Satellite Images?**

Riyad Qahwaji, head of the "Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center - Enigma," believes the release of these images aims to showcase Hezbollah's capabilities and boost the morale of its members and supporters. He suggested it is part of a psychological war against Israel to imply that the group possesses important military capabilities that should act as a deterrent. Qahwaji noted that a comparison between "Hoopoe 1" and "Hoopoe 2" shows a significant difference between the images and footage from the first and latest videos, with the latter appearing as if taken from satellites and at a high altitude, unlike the earlier footage which clearly showed drone capture. He suspects that the Iranian side may have provided the recent images and footage.

At this time, CNN reported from the American embassy in Israel that the American citizen injured after Hezbollah fired rockets towards northern Israel was not working for the U.S. government. The embassy stated it received information about an ordinary American citizen being injured, and they are gathering additional information, confirming that the individual is not affiliated with the U.S. government. However, due to privacy concerns, they have no further information to share.

**Will the Gaza Ceasefire Extend to Lebanon?**

Meanwhile, official Lebanese discussions have focused on ensuring that the anticipated Gaza ceasefire would also apply to southern Lebanon. Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, following a meeting with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, reassured the Lebanese that good news regarding the situation in the south should be expected, with a ceasefire in Gaza soon, which would extend to southern Lebanon.

However, Qahwaji does not seem convinced that the ceasefire in Gaza will automatically extend to southern Lebanon, as Israel has demands regarding changes on the northern front, specifically concerning Hezbollah's withdrawal of fighters and weapons to a depth of 16 kilometers, and may even be looking to deliver a blow to the group's capabilities. He added that from the Israeli standpoint, there is no connection at all between the Gaza and southern Lebanon fronts, and it is likely that Israeli attention will shift to the north once the Gaza front enters its third phase, characterized by low-intensity operations, according to "Asharq Al-Awsat."

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