A draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that tens of millions of people will suffer from famine, drought, and diseases within decades due to the catastrophic consequences of global warming on human health. Following a year that turned the world upside down with the COVID-19 pandemic, this draft report presents a grim outlook for the coming decades, characterized by malnutrition, water insecurity, and pandemics.
Policy choices, such as promoting plant-based diets, could mitigate some of these health consequences, but many of them cannot simply be avoided in the short term, according to the report. It warns of compounded effects, such as crop damage, reduced nutritional value of staple foods, and rising inflation, likely to affect the most vulnerable populations.
Depending on how well humanity manages to reduce carbon emissions and curb global warming, a child born today may face multiple health threats before turning 30, the report reveals. The report, consisting of 4,000 pages and prepared by over 700 researchers, provides the most comprehensive picture to date of the impacts of climate change on our planet and its inhabitants, set to be published next year.
The report anticipates that an additional 80 million people will be at risk of famine by 2050. It also predicts disruptions to water supplies that will lead to a decline in rain-fed crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa. Up to 40% of rice production areas in India may become less suitable for this type of farming.
Global corn production has already decreased by 4% since 1981 due to climate change, while warming in West Africa has led to reductions in pearl millet and white corn yields by about 20% and 15%, respectively. The sharp decline in food production has steadily increased over the past fifty years.
The report indicates that the impacts of global warming not only affect the availability of key crops but also their nutritional values. It expects that extreme weather events—now more frequent due to warming—will harm wheat production in many areas. As crop yields decline and demands for biofuels and carbon-absorbing forests increase, food prices are expected to rise by about one-third by 2050, pushing an additional 183 million low-income people to the brink of chronic hunger.
In Asia and Africa, 10 million children are expected to suffer from malnutrition and stunting by mid-century, exposing a new generation to lifelong health issues despite greater social and economic development.
Moreover, the report clearly outlines the potential fate awaiting millions facing access issues to drinking water due to climate change. Currently, more than half of the world's population suffers from water insecurity, and climate impacts will undoubtedly exacerbate this situation.
The report suggests that research concerning water supplies, agriculture, and rising sea levels indicates that between 30 to 140 million people are likely to be internally displaced in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America by 2050. It also noted that the rapid melting of ice masses has "severely affected the water cycle," a primary source for around two billion people, which may "cause or heighten tensions over water resources."
As global warming increases the areas suitable for the breeding of mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects, the draft warns that by mid-century half the world's population may be exposed to insect-borne diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, and the Zika virus. The risks of malaria and Lyme disease are also expected to rise, and child deaths from diarrhea are set to increase at least until mid-century, despite greater social and economic development in countries experiencing high infection rates.
As always, the most vulnerable populations in the world will be the primary victims of these climate impacts, a reality underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic.
