Statements made by Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi on Thursday expressed official concerns about the possibility of protests occurring on the second anniversary of the fuel protests that resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of arrests. The Iranian Interior Minister stated that Iran's enemies (unnamed) are planning protests in November similar to those in 2019, with the shutdown of fuel stations in Iran being the beginning of these demonstrations. Vahidi explained that the recent cyber attack on fuel stations and people's concerns regarding gasoline are part of "the enemy's planning."
Vahidi's statements come amid disruptions at fuel stations across Iran due to a software malfunction affecting payment systems using subsidized cards, alongside a visible presence of security forces at some of these stations.
On Tuesday, the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) reported that nearly 4,300 fuel stations in Iran became inoperative due to a cyber attack, noting that "700 of these stations have been restored to service." Ali Faruzandeh, the director of public affairs at the Iranian Ministry of Oil, indicated that officials from the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company are holding an emergency meeting to discuss the issue, urging people to avoid gasoline pumps for now. Millions of drivers in Iran rely on fuel cards used by the government to manage the distribution of subsidized gasoline.
In November 2019, protests erupted at around 700 locations in Iran after authorities raised fuel prices without prior warning, with the protests lasting for 10 days during which authorities arrested 7,113 individuals. Iranian officials have acknowledged that authorities are responsible for 80% of the deaths among the November protest victims. At that time, the Ministry of Interior stated the number of fatalities due to the fuel price hike protests was less than 225, but non-government estimates indicated that the true number was much higher.
In Isfahan province, south of Tehran, billboards in several provinces were replaced with the phrase "Where is our gasoline, Khamenei?" In this context, ISNA reported that "images from Isfahan show that digital billboards in the city were targeted by a cyber attack." However, the news was removed minutes after being published. The agency mentioned that the cyber attack was "conducted by foreign agents," while long lines formed in front of fuel stations in various Iranian cities.
In July, the city of Ahvaz, in the southwest of the country, witnessed widespread protests dubbed "water protests" that resulted in deaths and injuries, demanding water provision and the resignation of local officials due to mismanagement of the crisis affecting a region with nearly 5 million residents.
The water scarcity in Iran is attributed to various weather-related factors, including a sharp decline in rainfall, which has decreased by over 40% compared to last year's levels in recent months. The drought has also reduced the water available for hydropower generation in Iranian dams, leading to power outages in recent weeks. Experts argue that decades of mismanagement by the Iranian government have also contributed to the drought.
In the same month, several provinces experienced continuous power outages due to the shutdown of certain power plants, especially the Bushehr plant, Iran's oldest nuclear power station, due to what they called a "technical fault." Energy officials in Iran have warned of a chronic electricity crisis as winter approaches, especially with ongoing drought, gas shortages, and deteriorating infrastructure, alongside the consumption of a significant amount of electricity for Bitcoin mining controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Despite having the second-largest gas resources in the world and one of the richest oil resources that could be used as fuel in power plants, Iran is among the countries most vocal about electricity complaints.
Mohammad Mohsen Abu al-Noor, head of the Arab Forum for Iranian Policy Analysis (AFAIP), stated that Vahidi's statements have two dimensions. The first indicates there are intelligence reports about unrest in Iran, with the country on the brink of protests similar to those in 2019 due to multiple crises, particularly energy and drought, which have already sparked demonstrations.
Abu al-Noor added in remarks to Sky News Arabia that the second dimension is the anger and frustration felt by Iranians due to continual external cyber intrusions without any response from Tehran, as has happened with nuclear plants and recently with fuel stations. He noted that Iranian anger stems from the substantial budget allocated to the "Supreme Cybersecurity Council," established by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2012 and headed by the country's president.
Regarding the regime's tools to confront protests, Abu al-Noor stated that the Iranian regime relies on loyalty in selecting security personnel, whether in the internal security forces or the Revolutionary Guard, and any protests will be met with repression as experienced previously.
