The exchange rate of the dollar dominates the daily lives of Lebanese people, with their entire existence linked to it. Prices of food items and basic goods are all controlled by the daily dollar rate. Attention is currently focused on October 31, 2022, the date marking the end of the current President Michel Aoun's term, amid discussions about a presidential vacancy due to the severe political crisis the country is experiencing. So, what scenario is expected for the dollar after this date?
Economist Louis Hbeika predicts three scenarios for the dollar's exchange rate following Aoun's term. The first scenario involves the election of a new president on schedule, thus opening a new chapter for Lebanon, regardless of who is elected, which would immediately lead to a decrease in the dollar price on the black market. According to him, Lebanese people would sell their dollars as the election of a president positively reflects the state's image and democratic life in Lebanon, leading them to believe that conditions are improving.
He further adds that "the second scenario entails a presidential vacancy, which is likely—even though Lebanon is a country of surprises and anything can happen. In this case, the dollar would rise slightly because people will not sell dollars but will rather buy them." Hbeika warns about the third and most dangerous scenario, which involves the president deciding, based on consultations, to remain in the palace. He states that this would lead to a surge in the dollar's price without a defined ceiling, marking a significant problem for the country, and directly worsening the situation in various ways.
Therefore, there is no doubt that the coming two months are crucial for Lebanon. What scenario will unfold? What future awaits us?
