All indicators, both Lebanese and Israeli, noted in recent hours suggest that there will be no significant breakthrough in the file of demarcating southern maritime borders in the foreseeable future, at least not before the end of September. Locally, during a round of talks with President Michel Aoun and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab announced that "the American mediator in the demarcation file, Amos Hochstein, will visit Lebanon at the end of this week. This does not mean that the visit will bring a final solution, but it will be an additional positive step towards a solution. We must know that this issue is complex and intricate, but it is heading in the right direction." He added, "Communication will increase this month, and we hope to reach a result. We do not want to be overly optimistic, nor do we want to say that we are pessimistic. Things are moving in the right direction, and we should keep the hope that the file will conclude in not too long a time."
On the Israeli side, in the context of data that does not suggest an imminent agreement, what was published by Yedioth Ahronoth indicates that the operation of oil fields, which was expected to significantly contribute to the collapsing Lebanese economy, has been postponed until after the elections in Israel and after the six-month term of President Michel Aoun ends on November 1.
According to diplomatic sources cited by "Al-Markazia," what has been presented confirms that the "achievement" of signing the demarcation agreement, which the current administration was hoping for in its final days, will not materialize. This constitutes a setback for the orange team and can be seen as an indication that the international community is not keen on cooperating either with the outgoing administration of President Aoun or with its allies, particularly Hezbollah, which has opted for escalation and threats to pressure Tel Aviv. Amidst official and presidential silence, this behavior has not proven effective but has rather slowed the negotiations and made those involved unwilling to grant Aoun the "gift" of an agreement.
From here, the question arises: what will Hezbollah say to its constituents and the Lebanese, as September will pass without a demarcation agreement, especially since it had allowed discussions until the end of the month to reach an understanding, or else there would be dire consequences? Can it carry out its threats and lead Lebanon towards confrontation with Israel? In either case, the Lebanese, who are mired in a living collapse, will neither be winners nor beneficiaries, the sources conclude.
