Sources following the elections in Tripoli and the North note that the Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, who is refraining from running in his city, is engaging in diplomacy with all the currently warring political parties in the elections, except for one party—General Ashraf Rifi. It seems he has no political enmity except with Rifi and behind him the "Forces" party, as these sources have clarified. These sources also convey some grievances directed at Mikati, even from his own list. Candidates on the list "For the People," which is essentially Mikati's, express, "We wish he would support the list, especially some of its candidates who are currently fighting desperate battles, and contribute some of what God has blessed him with to these candidates in need, yet Mikati remains indifferent."
Why this impression? Because in Tripoli, the people of "Azer" and "Saada" are active on social media with posts inciting against Rifi and the "Forces," sometimes even excluding candidate Omar Harfouch, accusing him of being a deposit from Gebran Bassil, without clearly declaring their intent to support the "For the People" list and fight alongside them openly, rather encouraging the election of some from the list whose names have been tinged with purple, such as Elissar Yassine and Wahib Tader, or covertly suggesting a preference for Suleiman Obeid and Ali Darwish.
So why is the head of the country waging an unyielding war against General Rifi? These sources view that, in reality, above anything else, Mikati does not want Rifi as a deputy in the city because Rifi's voice against the establishment would overshadow Mikati's moderate and conciliatory tone toward it and Hezbollah's weaponry. The second point, which is no less important than the first, is an alleged implicit agreement between Presidents Mikati and Saad Hariri not to allow Rifi and his supporters from the "Forces" to expand in Tripoli, regardless of the reason.
What has alarmed Mikati and his electoral machinery—indications show that it has been lightly activated to provide guidelines for distributing votes regionally in favor of some candidates on the "For the People" list in Tripoli—is the information about Rifi nearing the securing of three breakthrough points for his list "Save the Nation," and the rising prospects for Mustafa Alloush's list "Lebanon for Us," with a likelihood of obtaining two or three breakthrough points between Tripoli and Minieh. The Denniyeh district will witness fierce competition between candidates Bilal Harmouch and Sami Fatfat from the "Save the Nation" and "Lebanon for Us" lists, while candidate Barra Harmouch from the "For the People" list is working to enhance his chances in the competition by relying on the base of his late father, former MP Asaad Harmouch. Meanwhile, all electoral machinery operating in the second district indicates that MP Jihad As-Samad’s success is undisputed.
As for the Sunni seats on the "For the People" list, recent data point only to the continued advance of candidate Karim Kabbara in the Sunni arena, with Mikati's machinery focused on Alawite candidate MP Ali Darwish, reportedly providing him with the necessary votes to ensure his victory. Regarding the Maronite seat in Tripoli, which has become central to the upcoming parties and lists, this time, it will witness a fierce battle unlike previous rounds. The competition will be strong between candidates Eli Khoury (Rifi's - Forces list) and Suleiman Obeid (Mikati's - Kabbara's list), with candidate Tony Shahin (Alloush's list) making noticeable progress in the race for this seat.
These are the main data points from the final hours in this decisive electoral week, and it must be noted that the movement of the "Azer" machinery will certainly affect the guarantee of three breakthrough points for the "For the People" list; otherwise, their battle in Tripoli will be difficult.
Mayez Obeid - Nidaa Al-Watan
