Lebanon

"Presidential" Meetings in Maarab and Ongoing Communication Between the Forces and the "Change" MPs

The developments witnessed in recent days, particularly the consultative parliamentary meeting held by a number of opposition and independent MPs in the House of Representatives, did not discourage the "Forces" party, which was not invited to participate in it. This follows the meeting of the leader of the "Progressive Socialist Party," Walid Jumblatt, with officials from "Hezbollah." Samir Geagea, the head of the "Forces" party, had called at the beginning of the week for all 67 opposition MPs to intensify communications to agree on a single candidate for the presidency. Contrary to what many believe, Geagea sees the initiation of a dialogue process regarding the presidential file as a positive development, as he is convinced that all these efforts will eventually converge in an attempt to agree on a single figure to be nominated in the upcoming presidential elections – one who does not belong to the "March 8" team.

Last Tuesday, 16 opposition and independent MPs, including those from the "Kataeb" party and six "Change" MPs, in addition to MPs Niama Efram, Michel Moawad, Adeb Abdel-Masih, Ashraf Rifi, and Fouad Makhzoumi, met at the parliament for a consultative gathering aimed at establishing a framework for coordination among them in legislative work. This is expected to expand to include how they will deal with the upcoming presidential election. However, this meeting was boycotted by some "Change" MPs and other independents who found it ineffective. The "Forces" MPs were also not invited. This meeting came hours after Geagea held a press conference where he appealed to those he deemed opposition MPs to intensify efforts to agree on a single presidential candidate, affirming that "this matter hinges on the goodwill and vision of all 67 opposition MPs."

The "Forces" sources do not consider the absence of "Strong Republic" bloc MPs from this meeting as indicative that things are heading toward opposition and independent MPs confronting the presidential election "disjointed", which would once again lead to the victory of a "March 8" candidate. In a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat," they noted that Geagea had called for "initiating a political dynamic for the opposition to reach the presidential election and draw a roadmap for achieving a united stance and unity of ranks." Therefore, they view the consultative parliamentary meeting as positive because ultimately, meetings must start from somewhere, and they have begun.

The sources revealed that the leadership of the "Forces" in Maarab was informed of this gathering and was aware of its content and discussions. They clarified that "many independent and non-independent MPs visit Geagea and coordinate with him away from the media," and "we are confident that all these meetings, gatherings, and efforts serve a singular cause and the same goal, and will ultimately converge in a specific place because everyone realizes that a single component will not be able to achieve the desired outcomes alone."

The sources also reminded that "since the end of the parliamentary elections, the Forces party has called for the necessity of unifying the opposition and its ranks, especially since these elections succeeded in wresting the majority from the other team. Therefore, it is necessary to leverage this significant development for the benefit of Lebanon, the state in Lebanon, and the sovereign and reformist forces." They believe that "Jumblatt's meeting with Hezbollah officials does not mean that he will back a candidate from 'March 8'. He has been clear on this matter, and this is what we agree upon, which means that the possibility of understanding among all opposition components around a unified name for the presidency is still viable."

Geagea is continuing communication with several "Change" MPs, including MP Paula Yacoubian, to reach agreements regarding the presidential file. Yacoubian stated, "We realize that there is currently no possibility of bringing forth a candidate to confront the powers of the regime, as we will not be able to secure their victory. We consider that anyone proposing such a candidate does not actually want to see them succeed and is instead seeking to deepen the problem." She mentions a set of criteria that will be used to choose the approved candidate's name, the most important being that the candidate must "be outside the system, capable of halting the downward performance, able to establish good relations with the international community without leading Lebanon entirely into the Iranian axis, and not cover up the mafia's corruption, as well as being sovereign."

Yacoubian added, "We are communicating with all sovereign forces including the 'Forces' and the 'Kataeb' and anyone who can vote with us to reach an agreement on a name for a president we can secure their victory for, rather than simply proposing names that aim to raise the negotiation ceilings." Geagea believes that "the parliament today is divided into two factions: the first is with the resistance axis, namely the existing authority, which consists of 61 known deputies, who have given their utmost, resulting in the current situation we are experiencing today. There is the second faction, which includes the other 67 deputies." He and the rest of the opposition MPs currently rely on avoiding further losses they suffered since the parliamentary elections, particularly regarding the elections for the presidency of the parliament and the vice-presidency, as well as with the selection of the prime minister.

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