Hours separate us from the peak of Egyptian football between Ahly and Zamalek, as part of the Egyptian Premier League competition. This is the second match between the teams during the holy month of Ramadan, with the previously postponed match ending a few days ago in favor of the Red Giant, winning by two goals to one. Ahly fans feel angered by the team's poor performance in recent league matches, accumulating only 10 points in the last 6 matches, while the White Castle's fans refuse to accept a second defeat to their traditional rival within less than a month.
The Red Giant enters this match having gathered 40 points from 18 games, while Zamalek has 44 points from 20 matches. This match marks the 122nd encounter between the two teams in the Egyptian league. In previous matches, the Red team has won 46 times, while Zamalek has achieved a complete victory in 28 encounters, with 45 matches ending in a draw.
The pivotal question remains: which team is closer to victory in the "Egyptian derby"?
**Zamalek Must Win**
Sports critic Youssef Salem states that Zamalek has no alternative but to win after losing the first round encounter and the African final last season against their traditional rivals, as well as the early exit from this season's CAF Champions League. A defeat for Zamalek would psychologically impact the players in all upcoming matches.
Salem adds to "Sky News Arabia": "The edge of one team over the other is crafted through a number of consecutive victories, making it difficult for your players to win against a team that has consistently beaten them. The current generation of Zamalek possesses technical quality, and they must secure victory if they wish to continue competing with Ahly domestically and continentally."
To confirm the psychological advantage mentioned by sports critic Youssef Salem, former Ahly captain Shady Mohamed mentioned in previous statements to "Sky News Arabia" that derby matches significantly depend on players being mentally prepared: "There were matches we decided before even stepping onto the pitch, because the opponent knew well that we would win. It was impossible to leave the field without securing three points, or at least one. However, we wouldn't lose, and this comes from winning multiple consecutive matches, which was evident during our playing period."
Salem continues: "It’s essential that all these game-specific circumstances serve as support and encouragement factors for Zamalek's players, rather than pressure that leads to their lackluster performances, especially given Ahly's absences. Zamalek would have no excuse should they fail to win."
**Offensive Transformations**
The sports critic sees French coach Patrice Carteron's style as troubling for Ahly. "Zamalek under Carteron is characterized by rapid attacking transformations, and Ahly's recent matches have shown that they struggle against any team capable of swift counter-attacks."
He adds: "In the first round match, Zamalek failed to create counter-attacks, while Ahly minimized their loss of possession in the midfield. The only moment Zamalek succeeded in crafting a quick attack ended in a goal from their star, Shikabala. Without defensive errors and bad luck, the game's scenario would have changed completely."
He elaborates: "I expect neither team will lean towards ball possession, as each will play on the counter-attacks that Zamalek excels at, while Ahly often fails due to slow build-up play and negative passes that hinder attacks and allow opponents to organize their defenses. Each time, Mohamed Sherif (who scored both goals for Ahly in the last derby) won't always be there to save you and compensate for the shortcomings of those around him."
Salem further clarifies that Zamalek's biggest issue lies in the gap between the defense and midfield. "Zamalek relies on offensive pressure by reducing the distance between attack and midfield lines, which requires slight advancement of the defense line (center-backs). However, Carteron fears counter-attacks and doesn’t allow the defense to push up, creating space that opponents can exploit. If the opponent is Ahly, you will face an extremely active playmaker in Mohamed Magdy Afsha."
He concludes: "The solution to this problem lies in advancing the center-backs slightly, utilizing Hazem Imam and Mohamed Abdel-Shafy in right and left back positions, respectively, for their ability in covering back."
He wraps up his comments: "Zamalek fans hope for a significant win to compensate for recent failures, and it is expected to see a strong performance from the White team players. However, predicting a winner in the classic encounter is tough, as derbies always come with surprises."
**Ahly and Confidence**
On the other hand, sports critic Mohamed Talaba states that the first round encounter in the Premier League enhances Ahly players' confidence in themselves and their chances of winning, "but this confidence must not turn into arrogance or a sense of guaranteed victory to avoid adverse results."
Talaba adds to "Sky News Arabia": "A win for Ahly in the derby increases their chances of claiming the Premier League title despite recent failures and offers players an opportunity to regain their confidence ahead of the upcoming match against Sundowns in the African championship."
He continues: "Ahly is suffering from severe fluctuations in performance. Since Pitso Mosimane took over the team's coaching, the fans have always felt anxious, despite his promising start with the club when he achieved domestic double titles, the African championship, and the bronze medal in the Club World Cup. However, you are coaching a club that always seeks trophies, and those achievements won't excuse the South African coach if he loses the derby or exits this year's African championship."
The sports critic also points out that Mosimane hasn’t settled on a fixed formation and hasn’t developed the players' performance. "Player development is one of the key marks of a coach, and the previous coach, فايلر, succeeded in this, but Mosimane has yet to impact the players’ performance in any way."
**Game Building**
Talaba follows up: "Ahly needs to build their play faster, unlike the team's past matches which require rapid movement from the attacking players to assist the playmaker and midfield players in making forward passes, creating impactful opportunities against Zamalek's goal."
He elaborates: "Given the available elements, Ahly's attacking trio will most likely consist of Mohamed Sherif, Hussein El-Shahat, and Tahr Mohamed Tahr, whose names are characterized by speed, but it is essential to use this speed correctly to create genuine chances against Zamalek. If not, they will be physically exhausted, and with the absences in the club, they might find themselves in a difficult position."
He concludes: "Such matches do not adhere to logic and are governed by small details that lead to surprises. We do not know which fan base will have a joyful night, and personally, I predict the match will end in a draw."
