The newspaper "Al-Jumhuriah" wrote: This is the most tragic chapter that all segments of the Lebanese population are experiencing at this stage, where this people is subjected to the most heinous exploitation by the most despicable and vile criminals. Recent events may be the most dangerous Lebanon has witnessed since the onset of its crisis; solutions are completely blocked, and the collapse is accelerating in various fields. The snowball of crisis is rolling everything along, exacerbating risks to social security. A tour of shops reveals the horrific effects of the crime committed against the Lebanese people, and merely looking at people's faces shows the suffocation and humiliation they are enduring. In light of this reality, it has become embarrassing to speak of a power that has defeated its people by distancing itself from them, relying on neutrality regarding the afflictions of this people, and leaving the field clear for the criminal monopolists who manipulate prices to wage a war of collective extermination against the Lebanese in their daily sustenance and essentials of life. The least that can be said to an authority that resides in the darkness of its calculations and the interests of its affiliates, and whose policies only give birth to problems, sensitivities, and provocations for the sake of party affiliations, is that the greatest service it can provide to a people it has humiliated is to be ashamed and bury itself in the ground.
The reality is indeed bitter; the entire country has become a black market. People are openly choosing between hunger and exorbitant prices. Yesterday, it was fuel and medicine; today, other essentials have followed suit, from bread to bottles of water, grains, sugar, and even salt. The shops selling meat, poultry, vegetables, and fruits now resemble branches of jewelry stores. Not to mention healthcare, which has become the privilege of the rich and the fortunate among the political protectors and influential people. All of this is happening while the savings, deposits, and even the salaries of employees are trapped in banks in a documented crime of theft, and the most heinous acts of oppression and extortion are being perpetrated against them. The authority covers its failure with deceptive rhetoric about deterrents and procedures, alongside superficial displays and raids before the cameras, led by an employee in a ministry or administration who rolls up his sleeves and thunders with statements threatening violators. Meanwhile, the result is more painful than the violations themselves, namely the counting of offenses in this region or that, and drawing up reports against a store, a bakery, a fuel station, a pharmacy, or a monopolist caught red-handed, which are swiftly wiped out by the interventions of influential people, and the pursuits are halted, and fines are canceled. How can these people be deterred when the authority protects the perpetrators and encourages them to continue to humiliate people?!
Fears of the Authority's Risks
Alongside this tumultuous situation, part is resigned to total failure, and another part swims in denial, trying to deceive people into believing that the rapid collapse is part of a global phenomenon, and that its causes are not internal, but rather "the fault of the Russians and Ukrainians." How can such words be uttered while the monopolists manage the game of concealing essential daily goods for citizens and pushing prices to insane levels? These monopolists are internal rooms that the authority and its agencies are fully aware of—they know where they are and the names of their owners, and there are neither Russians nor Ukrainians involved!
According to the unfolding daily realities, and the absence of a genuine authority entrusted with protecting its people and securing even the minimum of internal fortification, and deterring those who breach it, the accelerating tumble indicates an unknown future, with unmeasurable risks for Lebanon and the Lebanese people. It has become commonly accepted among various domestic circles that the country's situation is fraught with people's frustrations, and fears are growing of the explosion of the social bomb and the serious repercussions that will result on the overall Lebanese picture.
What about the upcoming entitlements?
Amidst these circumstances, the question arises about the upcoming entitlements, the nearest of which is the parliamentary elections in about two months. Responsible sources affirm to "Al-Jumhuriah" that the fears of a social explosion are legitimate, as the popular resentment and anger have reached terrifying levels, and the Lebanese people’s capacity to endure pressures is almost exhausted. The movement of resentment continues to swell, and this trend of aggravation will inevitably lead to a widespread social explosion, more dangerous than a security explosion, with fears of dragging the country into comprehensive and genuine chaos this time.
Alongside repeated affirmations from several government officials that the parliamentary elections will take place on schedule on May 15, it seems that this entitlement is proceeding within its legal and procedural framework without political or administrative obstacles. This is providing momentum to the electoral scene, whether through candidacies, or by activating political and civil forces for their electoral machinery, or through the intense movement between one political party and another to forge alliances and build joint lists for the elections. However, these assurances affirming the absence of any political obstacle for holding elections, and that no party has the ability to disrupt or postpone this entitlement, seem to be based on principled positions regarding conducting the elections on time, and a principled rejection of any delay or extension of the current parliament even by a single minute. Therefore, "the megacenter bomb" has been dismantled, which some parties believed concealed an explosive issue for delaying elections.
However, despite the enthusiasm for completing the entitlement, those enthusiastic have nothing but repeated affirmations of holding the elections, without certainty that the electoral processes will indeed take place in mid-May.
Concerns are warranted!
Responsible political sources emphasize to "Al-Jumhuriah" that the political decision is decisive regarding holding the elections. Depending on the positions of the parties, they are theoretically set to occur at the scheduled time. If the current course continues as is, the elections will surely take place. However, the existing situation in Lebanon socially and economically raises concerns about the emergence of unaccounted factors during the two months leading up to the elections. The source of concern, as those same responsible sources indicate, arises from the recent developments in the country's economic and living conditions, which have seen dangerous surges; if they persist, we may reach a social explosion, which is an imminent possibility, and if it happens, it would mean that the situation could spiral out of control and roll into dramatic realities that further deteriorate the situation in Lebanon, plunging it into greater fractures, divisions, and tensions, impacting everything within it, making holding elections an extremely difficult matter.
In summary, concern is warranted, and all possibilities are on the table.
Additional Bombs
Alongside the concerns of responsible sources about a social explosion, a similar level of concern is apparent among some political levels regarding other similar bombs in Lebanon in the coming weeks. In addition to the social bomb, there is a fundamental bomb related to all state institutions and their various agencies, whose presence and effectiveness are severely declining due to the rot that has afflicted them, crippling their ability to sustain and causing a huge shortage in their logistical and financial requirements. Not to mention the state of social security, which has reached the point of gasping for breath.
Simultaneously, there is an additional bomb in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Indications, according to well-informed political sources, do not signal the desired progress in them, contrary to the assurances of the government side that matters are proceeding as planned with the IMF. A significant gap still exists between the two parties, and the Fund's approach reflects dissatisfaction with the proposals from the Lebanese side; it has openly expressed its discontent, whether with the budget it deems below the required level and inadequate to meet its demands, as well as with the so-called recovery plan, and concerning the conditions it considers obligatory to achieve a cooperation program with the Lebanese government, especially regarding the management situation, the size of the public sector, the reality of the lira and dollar, and the liberalization of the exchange rate.
Internally, alongside the escalating social crisis, the priority for political and official levels remains the parliamentary elections, where the final picture of official candidacies is expected to crystallize tomorrow, as the deadline for submitting candidacies ends at midnight on Tuesday, March 15. Meanwhile, a race among political forces to announce their candidates is taking place ahead of the end of the candidacy deadline. In this context, the press conference that will be held by the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri at 2:30 PM today regarding the electoral file and announcing the candidates of the "Amal" Movement fits.
Candidates of the "Movement"
Regarding candidate announcements, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, announced 20 candidates for the Free Patriotic Movement, including:
- Akkar: As'ad Daghm and Jimmy Jabour.
- Koura: George Attallah.
- Zgharta: Pierre Raffoul.
- Jbeil: Simon Abi Ramiya.
- Batroun: Gebran Bassil.
- Kesrouan: Nada Bustani.
- Metn: Eddie Maalouf, Elias Abu Saab, Ibrahim Kanaan.
- Baabda: Alan Aoun.
- Aley: Cesar Abi Khalil.
- Chouf: Ghassan Attallah.
- Beirut I: Nicolas Saahnaoui.
- Jezzine: Salim Khoury, Amal Abu Zeid, Ziad Aswad.
- Zahle: Salim Aoun.
- Beirut II: Edgar Traboulsi.
- West Bekaa: Charbel Maroun.
As for the Catholic candidate in Northern Bekaa, it will be decided later.
Bassil stated that their electoral project is to "bring down Gebran and the Movement," rather than to reform the state and the economy. He pointed out that there is a large party in Lebanon, the "Party of Corruption," which is “like a chameleon.”
He said: "The multifaceted have enjoyed gains during the era of tutelage, and when it ended, they changed their skin and rode the wave of freedom and later refused to give up their gains, failed to achieve reforms, and caused the collapse in October 17. Then they changed their skin again and became known as 'the Revolution.’” He added in colloquial terms: "The chameleon not only changes color, but also changes the truth and tries to change our color... The thief and the corrupt wants to replicate itself for us. This is moral assassination, which is far more challenging than physical assassination because a bullet kills you once, but a lie and a rumor kill you every time."
He pointed out that they assumed they won the elections and that they would be the imaginary majority that would disarm Hizbollah or prevent it from entering the government. The sanctions will not be lifted from me as long as there are elections, and no one can bury us - we are good and the battle has not ended yet. What they couldn't take by force, we won’t let them take by impoverishment, and what they still couldn't take through corruption, we won't let them win through elections."
Abou Faour
Member of the Democratic Encounter, MP Wael Abou Faour, noted in a statement: "The project of the March 8 forces collectively in the upcoming parliamentary elections is summarized in obtaining two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives. Thus, they would impose their favored candidate as president of the republic and control constitutional amendments, change the regime, and transform the current reality of weapons into constitutional fact—this is what will not be accepted by the will of the Lebanese."
Raï
On the positions side, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi said in a sermon during Sunday Mass yesterday: "The citizens are suffering in Lebanon; in addition to their poverty and unemployment, low salaries are coupled with chaotic banking, economic, commercial, and tourism situations without oversight or deterrent. It seems that the financial legislation in these sectors has become independent from the country's laws and the laws of monetary and credit affairs. From withholding money to losing dollars, to restricting withdrawals in lira, to currency dealers’ manipulation of all currencies, to preventing transfers to cover necessities, to accepting credit cards with increased values on the bill, to refusing payment via credit cards, to imposing cash payments—this is financial, living, and social hemorrhage. The government cannot address this chaotic situation except by reviving at least the minimum of the financial system, regulating state revenues by collecting taxes and fees from everyone, in all Lebanese regions, controlling revenues from the airport, ports, and borders, stopping smuggling both in and out, and investing coastal properties."
He emphasized that "Lebanon's neutrality, which is central to its identity, is based on not entering into alliances, axes, political conflicts, or regional and international wars. The state must be strong with its army and security agencies to impose its sovereignty inside and outside, respecting the sovereignty of other countries and responding to any aggression against it with its own forces. This neutrality makes Lebanon a beacon. It sympathizes with human rights and the freedom of peoples. It initiates reconciliation efforts, solves disputes, and works for peace and stability."
Aoude
For his part, Metropolitan Elias Aoude of Beirut and its dependencies for the Orthodox Greeks, in a sermon during Sunday Mass yesterday, called on officials "to respect the people and cease exploiting, enslaving, or underestimating them." He said: "Every now and then, we hear talk about postponing the elections. This matter is rejected and condemned by the people, as the patience of the people has run out with those who have tormented, exploded, humiliated, and tarnished it, while they still watch its suffering and despair." He noted that "since the financial and economic collapse nearly two years ago, we have not seen progress nor even a halt to the collapse. For decades, there has been no electricity in homes, and we only hear about plans but without implementation. Our ears are deafened with mentions of reform and stopping waste, holding the unjust and violators accountable, and confronting the corrupt who have squandered the people's money and the dignity of the nation, but the speeches and pledges are far removed from reality and implementation. What matters to a starving or sick citizen if a certain person occupies this or that position, or if a certain person is excluded from this list or that one? Whether it’s possible to manufacture drones in Lebanon or whether Lebanon is in this alliance or that one?"
He stated: "All that officials do is distract the people with petty matters to serve their interests. Where is the investigation into the port explosion? Where is the accountability of monopolists? Where is electricity? Where is the people's money that they earned through their hard work, which corruption and mismanagement deprived them of? Where is the fight against corruption and the corrupt? Where is the reform of public administrations?"
