Lebanon

International Aid Dwindles... Elections or Reforms?

International Aid Dwindles... Elections or Reforms?

In a step whose implications cannot be overlooked at this stage, the appellate public prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Judge Ghada Aoun, lifted the travel ban on the chairmen of the Board of Directors of Bank of Lebanon and the Middle East (Blom) and Bank Audi. This move is likely to open the doors for serious negotiations between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Lebanese economic community, comprising both official and private components. This development comes amidst heightened electoral competition and a sort of "truce on the judicial front," allowing Lebanon to manage ongoing international financial negotiations without tension, regardless of whether the matter is connected to achieving a breakthrough, as France insists, or delaying agreements until after the parliamentary elections.

With the preliminary date for Pope Francis's visit to Lebanon set, "Al-Liwaa" learned that a meeting is soon anticipated between President Michel Aoun and Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi. However, the Director of the Media Office of the Holy See in the Vatican mentioned that the visit is still a hypothesis under consideration. Vatican correspondent for the "National Catholic Reporter", Christopher White, noted President Aoun's announcement of the Pope's visit to Beirut in early June, clarifying that "the Vatican has not yet confirmed the visit."

On the eve of the Council of Ministers session scheduled for today at the Grand Serail, which "Al-Liwaa" published its agenda for yesterday, political sources observed a notable decline in political performance and authoritative practices in managing people's affairs, with a careless or irresponsible approach to issues that matter to citizens, as if the authority is in one place, while the Lebanese public is in another. The sources pointed out that the ongoing attempts by the presidential team to blackmail the government in every decision or step it takes and the methods of circumvention, whether through politically motivated judicial pursuits against Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh or against some banks opposed to the failed policies of the current term, or by obstructing the implementation of government decisions concerning important matters for citizens, keep the situation in a vicious cycle and solutions paralyzed.

The worsening conditions and the static nature of the crisis force citizens to pay hefty prices due to the continued deterioration of the financial, economic, and living situation. The sources indicated that instead of focusing on working together to alleviate the burden on citizens, whether by increasing electricity supply for an additional hour, speeding up the implementation of the economic recovery plan, or combating the wave of inflation and illegal speculation, these officials are preoccupied with the game of sectarian quotas, seeking to monopolize the largest share for themselves in key state positions.

The sources affirmed that the disputes among those in power and the scramble for shares and influence have led to the obstruction of appointments and diplomatic formations in the Foreign Ministry, despite their importance at this stage. They noted that while some factions close to the current term accuse the Prime Minister of freezing these diplomatic formations for personal reasons and interests, they emphasized that Mikati implicitly refuses to make appointments and diplomatic alterations at this time to avoid their exploitation by Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Gibran Bassil in the upcoming parliamentary elections for his benefit; however, he does not mind filling some key positions necessary for the state's management.

Monitoring sources reported to "Al-Liwaa" that no enthusiasm has been observed among voters in the current electoral cycle so far. They clarified that the elections mainly concern party members and supporters, adding that the post-registration phase is expected to provide impressions regarding the next steps and how to mobilize citizens to cast their votes. It was mentioned that pressures are being exerted in the form of financial assistance or incentives or vote-buying which has slightly started and is anticipated to expand in the coming days to ensure participation and voting for these or those forces.

On the other hand, the sources questioned the government's ability to prevent a crisis amid dwindling aid and the linkage of international aid to required reforms, noting that a series of crises, including water, electricity, and waste, are imposing themselves on the scene and await resolutions that can only be partial.

With the number of electoral lists in all districts reaching 103, it has been observed that civil society and opposition forces have significantly divided among themselves, with each district having between three to five lists, making it extremely challenging for them to secure parliamentary seats against the lists of major political forces that command closed blocks of votes that nobody contests. However, all lists will be busy in the run-up to the elections on May 15 with their campaigns and activating their machinery, which means further escalation of populist political stances while citizens, for the most part, seem uninterested in what is happening and are focused on securing bread, a plate of fattoush, electricity generator subscriptions, and healthcare, with enthusiasm appearing low among those far from their villages and polling stations who do not intend to incur the costs of travel for voting, especially as the price of gasoline has exceeded 500,000 Lebanese Lira.

The Chairman of the Elections Supervisory Authority, Judge Nadim Abdul-Malik, issued two statements, the first numbered 7 concerning candidate political programs on media and the need to comply with the law, and the second numbered 8 concerning the method of calculating the exchange rate of the US dollar for candidates, electoral lists, and media and advertising.

In the second statement, the authority informed all candidates, electoral lists, and media and advertising of the following: First: The need to declare electoral expenses that can be spent during the electoral campaign exclusively in Lebanese Lira. Second: If spending occurs in US dollars, the candidate or list and media and advertising must declare this in Lebanese Lira after proving the exchange rate through documents issued by a bank, an exchange dealer, or a company that may have dealt with any of them, proving the amount paid or received and indicating the amount relied upon upon its exchange or payment, whether it was the parallel rate, the platform rate, the free market rate, or according to the official rate imposed by the Central Bank of Lebanon.

Despite all the preparations for the elections, member of the Administrative Board of the Syndicate of Public Administration Employees, Ibrahim Nahhal, stated in a radio interview: "We are heading towards escalation and not attending polling stations if our demands, which summarize correcting salaries, increasing transportation costs, and restoring social benefits to their previous status such as healthcare and pensions, are not met."

Financially, while waiting for the results of the meetings of the IMF mission in Lebanon and whether they will lead to a preliminary agreement between the government and the fund before its departure from Beirut at the end of the week, the Finance and Budget Committee held a session chaired by MP Ibrahim Kanaan and the presence of Finance Minister Youssef Khalil to continue studying the provisions of the 2022 budget law project. Following the meeting, Kanaan stated: "The government must finalize the agreement with the IMF that includes a clear vision for the fate of depositors' funds, which we have and will continue to protect. The budget must not be built on differing and unclear exchange rates, as citizens are entitled to their rights from it at 1500 Lira and pay based on the parallel rate."

He added: "The committee considers that the absence of a budget deepens the financial and economic collapse and the world's confidence in us, so we need to approve it and address the discrepancies included in it." He continued: "We requested the Ministry of Finance to provide a clear margin for the exchange rate regarding its expenditures and revenues, and we suspended the tax provisions related to it until this issue is addressed."

In the parliamentary context, Speaker Nabih Berri called for a joint meeting of the Finance and Budget Committee and the Administration and Justice Committee at 11:00 AM today to study the proposed law aimed at recovering cash funds and financial portfolios transferred abroad after October 17, 2019.

**Last Drop of Fuel**

Meanwhile, regarding living conditions, a statement from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Lebanon announced that the World Food Programme, in collaboration with the World Health Organization, UNICEF, sector partners, and the Humanitarian Coordination Office, "delivered the last drop of fuel as part of the emergency fuel operations project for Lebanon within the emergency response plan (ERP) coordinated by the United Nations." It stated that from September 2021 to March 31, 2022, the World Food Programme provided more than 10.4 million liters of fuel to 350 water facilities and 272 health facilities across the country to address the acute fuel shortages and prevent the collapse of essential life-saving services. The Lebanon Humanitarian Fund, managed by OCHA and the Central Emergency Response Fund, provided $8.5 million to initiate this timely one-off support rapidly when needed.

UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator Najat Rushdie expressed her concerns about the ongoing impact of the energy crisis on essential services and people's well-being, stating: "I urge the Lebanese government to find a sustainable solution to this issue, as the most vulnerable people need some form of assistance and protection."

**Latest Wheat Supply**

The head of the Bakeries Syndicate in Mount Lebanon, Antoine Saif, announced that three mills have ceased operations due to a ship from Ukraine, indicating that the wheat on board was exposed to moisture. He clarified that the mills stored the wheat, and the Ministry of Agriculture took a sample for testing, with a specific examination required to be conducted outside Lebanon, particularly in France. He warned that "the quantity of wheat in other mills does not meet the total market needs and will last for no more than 25 days, with an additional 45,000 tons of wheat expected to arrive in Lebanon, sufficient for only an additional 25 days."

On his part, the representative of the mills in the south, Ali Ramal, announced that a severe flour crisis began to emerge in the south and is expected to intensify in the coming hours due to the suspension of Al-Taj Mills for about a week and the closure of Al-Dora Mills due to depleting wheat stock, especially since these mills cover over fifty percent of the Lebanese market, and no other mill can compensate for this amid these difficult conditions where remaining mills operate at reduced and regulated production capacities. However, Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam denied categorically in a statement "what was issued by the Mills Association, represented by Mr. Ahmad Hattit, or any other party, regarding the agreement with the World Bank on the subject of purchasing wheat." He emphasized that the ministry is the official entity responsible for negotiations with the World Bank and is authorized to announce any developments regarding this matter. He stated: "Negotiations are ongoing and are in an advanced and positive stage, aimed at developing a comprehensive program that ensures food security and the availability of essential materials, specifically wheat and flour."

**Judge Francis Recuses Himself**

Judicially, Judge Pierre Francis recused himself from the case of releasing Raja Salameh, brother of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, who remains detained after Judge Aoun appealed the release decision made by Investigating Judge Nicolas Mansour. This means that the file will be transferred to the president of the Court of Appeals in Baabda, Judge Eli Halou, to address the recusal request and determine which judge will handle the case in place of Francis, possibly either Judge Amira Shahrour or Judge Rabi' Hasani.

**COVID-19 Cases**

Health-wise, the Ministry of Health announced the registration of 284 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases since the outbreak to 1,093,551.

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