The "Al-Joumhouria" newspaper writes: Various political parties and forces have agreed, each from its own perspective, that Lebanon's fate hinges on the results of the parliamentary elections. Thus, these forces seem to have harnessed their capabilities and all means of mobilization and incitement at their disposal in service of fierce competition among themselves on the day of reckoning on May 15. This refrain, linking fate to the elections, which has become a daily echo in the arenas and sessions related to these parties, comes along with a complete lack of clarity regarding what the country's picture will be on May 15. None of these parties holds a firm assurance that elections will take place on time. Adding to the uncertainty is the position of the authority responsible for the electoral event, which continues to approach the elections as a necessity that must occur. In a language closer to wishful thinking, it lacks the certain decisiveness that polling stations will open on May 15!
### Questions
While the electoral lists have been finalized and are ready to enter the competition next May, the period leading up to election day is laden with question marks regarding the fate of the event. Although official and political parties are trying to assert that the political aspect does not pose an obstacle to conducting the elections given the complete acknowledgment of the necessity to hold them, and the inability of any party to obstruct the process, sources monitoring the electoral preparations have affirmed through "Al-Joumhouria" that the focus of the skeptics regarding the possibility of holding elections is on three main uncertainties:
1. **Living Conditions**: Amid unwholesome narratives circulating in many circles, tales are being spun that terrify regarding dreadful scenarios that could reignite unrest on the streets, with the elections being one of the first casualties.
2. **Technical, Financial, and Logistical Issues**: Fundamental to this is that elections cannot take place without all their tools being prepared. Assuming that equipment and stationery are ready, what about the essential factor of electricity? Elections minimally require a 24/7 electricity supply in all areas with polling stations from the night of May 14 until the end of vote counting on May 16. Is it feasible to hold elections without electricity? Where will electricity be sourced from amid Lebanon's electricity bankruptcy? Can the Ministry of Energy provide electricity for polling stations, and how? Will it seek to rely on generator operators? Who will cover the costs, and how?
3. **Pre-determined Election Results**: There is deliberate discourse among various political circles suggesting a foregone conclusion regarding the election outcomes, promoting a significant majority for "Hezbollah" and its allies in the new parliament, which implies control over the new government and the presidential elections in the coming fall. Is this promotion a facilitative factor for the elections, or is it a fuse that could be ignited at a certain moment to derail them, especially if this outcome, if accurate, is disheartening for external and internal forces that hoped the elections would provide an opportunity for a revolutionary change in the parliamentary map, paving the way for a new political management of the country over the current political management accused of drowning Lebanon in the mire of crisis?
### Government Confirmation
In this context, governmental sources informed "Al-Joumhouria" that preparations for election day are proceeding as normal and have not been affected by the analyses and interpretations being projected onto the electoral scene, which sow doubt about the possibility of conducting the elections. The sources asserted that regardless of the accuracy of these analyses, they are harmful and perplexing to the electoral reality but will not be able to hinder it. The sources noted that it is not hidden from anyone that these rumors stem from bleak readings of the Lebanese reality that assume the country is headed towards dramatic scenarios at both the living and other levels. They also arise from deeply rooted fears among certain parties that do not want elections that could lead to a resounding defeat for them, contrary to all their calculations and projections over more than two years, where they promoted that victory would be theirs. The sources emphasized that despite all this, the government is committed to holding the elections on the scheduled date, and the Ministry of Interior has completed its duties, with readiness at its peak for election day in an atmosphere of calm and stability.
### Commitment to Hold Elections
In response to a question about whether holding the elections is assured, the sources said: The government approaches the event as if it is certainly going to happen. This is the government's decision, and they will make every possible effort to remove any obstacles or impediments to the elections. The government has previously confirmed its commitment to holding the elections, and its readiness is at its peak. If there are intentions to obstruct them, this means that there are those wanting to bring more ruin to the country, especially since everyone knows that obstructing the elections would lead to catastrophic results, plunging the country into an unknown situation, the outcomes of which no one knows what it holds for Lebanon and the Lebanese.
### Elections Must Not Be Obstructed
In this regard, a responsible political figure confirmed to "Al-Joumhouria": I tend to believe that the probability of holding the elections is much higher than not holding them. However, given our current situation, in this incomprehensible "political mess," I believe that concern over the elections is warranted. Because there are those who are adversely affected by them, and no one knows what might be concealed from hidden agendas at the last moment. The same source affirmed that “before we ask about obstructing the elections, we should ask who stands to gain from such obstruction; I assert that no internal party has any interest in obstructing the elections, even if the results do not align with their wishes. Everyone benefits from the elections, the winners as well as the losers, as they could represent an opportunity for stability to return and put Lebanon back on the path to recovery. Hence, the elections must take place on time, and obstructing them is a grave sin that cannot be forgiven. Accordingly, everyone must approach the electoral event with a decisive principle entitled: obstructing the elections is forbidden.”
### The Sovereign Entities Deny
Meanwhile, sources identifying themselves as sovereign confirmed to "Al-Joumhouria" that the only party seeking to obstruct the elections is "Hezbollah," pointing out that accusing the sovereign and change-seeking forces of attempting to obstruct the elections is a brazen accusation from parties attempting to cover their escape from elections by attempting to assign the label of obstructionism to the sovereign forces. They stated: We are committed to the battle alongside our allies, and we are confident that the current "status quo" will not remain as it is.
### "Hezbollah": We Are Eager to Participate
In contrast, sources from "Hezbollah" informed "Al-Joumhouria" that they "have previously confirmed and reiterated that 'Hezbollah' is among the most eager for the elections to take place on schedule; we are not as concerned as others are, but rather excited to conduct them. We trust in our supporters; the problem for others is that they deceived their supporters and rode the wave of their movements, the result of which they harvested early since this audience has retreated from them. Regarding the accusations of obstruction, the sources stated: We expect all manner of blame from our opponents, accusations of obstruction and anything else; this is not strange for them; it's their nature, and we have come to expect this from them. As for us, we are set to meet our audience on May 15, and those seeking to obstruct can try as they may; let them accuse us as they wish, but in the end, they will achieve nothing.”
### Europeans are Cautious
Against this backdrop, diplomatic sources from Paris informed "Al-Joumhouria" that the electoral file in Lebanon is being monitored at the level of the European Union, reflecting satisfaction with the ongoing preparations and official commitments to finalize the electoral processes on time. The sources rejected "the accusations circulated by certain Lebanese parties against international entities, accusing them of secretly seeking to undermine the elections in Lebanon, as they will not yield the expected results or bring about the change promoted since October 17, 2019, but rather would restore a new majority to the benefit of 'Hezbollah' and its allies.” They stated: The international community, including the European Union countries, stands with the Lebanese people, wanting to see them emerge from the crisis afflicting Lebanon. Hence, they are disengaged from all that is said from here or there; what matters to Lebanon's friends is that it is placed before a serious opportunity for internal restructuring and moving towards a way out of the crisis through elections held on time, with the essential condition of integrity and neutrality while avoiding any pressure on the Lebanese people. This would lead to a new government committed to meeting Lebanon's obligations regarding reforms and combating corruption.
### The Fund Signs and Departs
On another note, it is expected that today the initial signing between the Lebanese government and the International Monetary Fund will take place, with the Fund's delegation departing Beirut tomorrow back to the United States. The Fund's delegation held a second meeting yesterday with the delegation of the economic bodies. According to reliable information provided to "Al-Joumhouria," the signing will take place on clear, general lines, but not detailed ones. The information indicated that based on these general lines, the Fund will begin conducting its studies and exploring how to accelerate steps with the Lebanese side, especially since more than a hundred countries struggling with delays are awaiting their turn to establish cooperation programs with the IMF. The sources noted that after obtaining preliminary approval from the Fund’s management, the delegation will return to Lebanon for the official signing of the cooperation program. After Lebanon signs, within two weeks the IMF's board will sign, and the program will commence and enter into force. The anticipated program is expected to span four years, with an amount estimated at around $4 billion, divided over four years. The fundamental principle is that it will be subject to review and scrutiny every three months regarding the completion of the Lebanese commitments and promises, especially regarding reforms and laws related to the cooperation program, specifically capital control and lifting of banking secrecy, the actual budget versus the digital one, and the restructuring of the banking sector. The significant penalty is that any failure or default during the three months halts the program and the payments.
The Fund’s delegation confirmed in yesterday's meetings that “Lebanon’s situation is the worst among the troubled countries the IMF deals with.” A senior IMF official stated: "We are dealing with 149 countries; however, we have never seen this level of failure, confusion, and financial crisis, whether within the Central Bank of Lebanon, Lebanese banks, or the Lebanese government." He emphasized that the situation is dire, and it can potentially be rebooted with a sound reform vision, but what raises concern for us is that in Lebanon, many laws are passed but are neither adhered to nor implemented, and this is one of the reasons for exacerbating the crisis.”
### Mikati: Progress Made
Prime Minister Najib Mikati indicated in yesterday's Cabinet session at the Grand Serail that significant progress has been made with the IMF mission regarding the key files related to the recovery program that the government intends to conclude with the Fund. He stated: “Discussions are still ongoing, and God willing, we will agree on all points, after which we will present the file to the Cabinet, alongside completing the necessary reforms and approving legislation and issuing related decrees.” He added: “It is true that we are facing a difficult social and economic reality endured by the Lebanese, but we will certainly not surrender and will continue to work towards putting the country on the path to recovery in cooperation with everyone. What the Deputy Prime Minister said in this regard aims to call everyone to cooperate to transcend this challenging reality we live in and appropriately describe this scenario scientifically.”
He expressed surprise at the uproar accompanying this statement, which he believes was intended to sow fear, despair, and more discouragement among the Lebanese, noting that the essence of the problem began when Lebanon defaulted on paying due bonds, while the government is in continuous operation to explore how to meet all internal and external commitments. Mikati addressed the issue of parliamentary elections, saying: “The Ministry of Interior is proceeding with the essential steps to conduct this event on time, in the best circumstances to ensure vote integrity and the complete neutrality of the state and its institutions. As for the skepticism surrounding the holding of the elections, and discussions about logistical and administrative obstacles that may hinder its occurrence, this is mere talk and analysis; this event will indeed take place on time.”
### Kallas Responds
Minister of Youth and Sports Dr. George Kallas, during the session, addressed the confusion surrounding the words of Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Saadeh Al-Shami. He clarified that in response to inquiries and to correct the comments following Al-Shami’s speech, regarding whether his position represents the government, it should be highlighted that Article 64 of the Constitution states that "the Prime Minister is the head of the government, represents it, speaks on its behalf, and is responsible for implementing the general policy set by the Cabinet." Thus, Dr. Al-Shami's statement concerning the financial crisis and economic difficulties Lebanon is facing reflects his own expert scientific opinion. Prime Minister Al-Shami is a well-respected economic figure known for his scientific, professional expertise and international experience in economic reconstruction and development strategies for troubled nations and communities facing acute financial crises.
### Two Power Plants
Moreover, Minister of Energy Walid Fayad announced that the Cabinet approved moving forward with contracts for the establishment, financing, and operation of new power plants in Deir Amar and Zahrani.
### Papal Visit
Politically, following the confirmation of Pope Francis's visit to Beirut next June, the Maronite Bishops Council, in its monthly statement yesterday, expressed joy over the announcement of the Papal visit to Lebanon in June. While awaiting the official program details of this visit, they pray for God's blessings to fulfill the Holy Father's wishes for the good of Lebanon and its people. The Catholic Bishops Council also welcomed this visit. The Maronite bishops emphasized the necessity of holding parliamentary elections on time and the importance for citizens to actively choose their representatives in parliament, thereby exercising their constitutional right to accountability and oversight. They cautioned against the continued monopolistic pressure and called for launching a national anti-corruption authority, stressing the need to remove economic recovery and reform plans from political disputes, safeguarding the country's welfare and citizens' interests, and signing the agreement with the IMF to enable the resumption of financial and economic life under these delicate local, regional, and international circumstances.
