The newspaper "Al-Jumhuriya" reported: The legal deadline for registering electoral lists ended last night, with the final count officially standing at 103 lists according to the Ministry of Interior. Minister of Interior Bassam Mawlawi stated following the closure of the registration period: "We affirm the ministry's readiness, as we are fulfilling all our duties despite the difficult circumstances and the atmosphere of confusion, and we insist on completing the electoral entitlement with ease, security, and success." Starting today, the forty-day journey will begin, testing the immunity of these lists and the alliances built upon them, their ability to withstand each other, and most importantly, their ability to appeal to popular sentiment and attract voters to the ballot boxes on May 15.
It is accepted that Lebanon, after compiling the lists, is now faced with a new scene, in which the mission appears easy for those concerned with the electoral entitlement, especially the owners of grand slogans that they have flooded the internal arena with for over two years, creating an illusion among people that the time for radical change is near. The forty-day journey is undoubtedly a "rocking journey" for these actors, particularly since their battle is now distributed in two directions: the first towards the people, which poses the greatest challenge for the party factions trying to promote their electoral programs which share a single common denominator: their traditional political and partisan titles and dogmas, as well as the random throwing of exaggerated slogans and promises onto the electoral scene. The second direction, which is no less difficult than attracting voters, features the real battles expected on election day within the lists, transforming them into lists that grind against each other, similar to what occurred in the previous 2018 elections, where party lists in particular turned into battlefields within themselves, leading to fierce internal competition for preferential votes at any cost. All the promises made to commit to electoral ethics and so on have been swallowed by the parties, confining preferential votes to party candidates alone, qualifying others as mere numbers, whose sole function is to bolster the list with votes enabling it to achieve thresholds.
Confirmed Illusions
What is certain in the forty-day journey is that the electoral arena will boil with electoral mobilization, and the preparations of the party powers signal that the surroundings will be filled from now until the ballot boxes open with the same political, partisan, and slogan-supporting uproar that accompanied the formation of the lists. This reflects described exaggerations from some parties, approaching the surreal, announcing prematurely a predetermined electoral battle and registering what can be termed "illusory victories," through which they imply that victory will be solely theirs on May 15 and that they have already reserved their seats in parliament, with only a few weeks remaining until their official appointment as representatives of the Lebanese people.
Crisis of Confusion
While the party and political powers across the board consider the electoral entitlement on May 15 to be fateful, analyses by electoral analysts and statisticians converge to confirm that this is the only matter in which the parties do not exaggerate. This indicates a genuine concern among the parties, fearing that the winds on May 15 might not blow in accordance with their preparations and everything they have done from mobilization and incitement since October 2019 until now. According to these readings, "The elections are indeed fateful for many parties, as well as for forces that have named themselves sovereign and transformative, deluding themselves that after the start of the October 17 uprising, they drew strength and muscles from the street, and mistakenly relied on their ability to create surprises and achieve changes that would turn the political and parliamentary reality upside down. This is reflected in surveys and studies that have been conducted honestly and impartially, even those conducted 'on demand and without accuracy or impartiality' show that all the talked about changes are among the seventh of impossibilities."
The Fateful Picture
An electoral and statistical expert summarized for "Al-Jumhuriya" what he called the "fateful picture" for some parties, pinpointing five crucial positions:
1. Between "the Free Patriotic Movement" and "the Lebanese Forces," competing for the Christian representative throne. The electoral conflict between them is more than fateful, and both are confronted with the reality of being unable to determine outcomes independently. Therefore, their "main battle" is not just through the party audience but in gathering supportive forces from outside both parties, which would tip the balance in favor of one side over the other. In clearer terms, both are seeking to benefit from the strength of others.
2. For the movements, personalities, and forces that classify themselves as transformative, facing a genuine and critical fateful battle. It appears their struggle is very difficult, tied to their inability to forge strong alliances among themselves, and to form unified lists among the movement forces. Thus, this battle appears to have been predetermined, as it is very difficult for the movements' lists on May 15 to reclaim their capital.
3. On the Amal Movement and Hezbollah front, while this duo is the most comfortable compared to other party forces regarding results, it still considers the elections fateful, not only related to the titles proclaimed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, but also concerning any attempt to penetrate their ranks in any district. For them, any breach in any district equals a defeat in all districts. Thus, both parties strive to strengthen their ground to prevent penetration, especially in the South, where parties and certain names have been recruited and funded to achieve even a single breach in the lists of "Amal" and "Hezbollah," which would serve as a foundation for claiming that the Shiite wall has been breached and that the audience of the duo has declined.
4. On the Sunni line, where the Sunni arena appears to be the most confused and dispersed regarding the elections, amid the retreat of President Saad Hariri and the Future Movement from participating in the elections. This is occurring while multiple competitors are seeking to inherit the political Hariri legacy, from Beirut to Sidon, Tripoli, Akkar, and West Bekaa. This explains the multiple competing lists in each Sunni district, but this does not at all mean an increase in participation within the Sunni sect, nor does it mean, more importantly, that this inheritance is possible, as Hariri and his movement have not exited political life, and their return is possible at any time.
5. The fundamental reason for describing the elections as fateful is the certainty among political and party forces that the expected voter turnout in the May 2022 elections will be the lowest in the history of parliamentary elections Lebanon has witnessed, potentially not exceeding 35% at best throughout Lebanon. The lower the turnout, the lesser the hopes and expectations, while increasing the chances for surprises regarding the parties.
Absence of the Crisis
While party and political forces have used the weight of the crisis burdening the country as an offensive platform against adversaries, blaming them for the ongoing collapse, statistics and electoral studies have recorded the following:
- First, the crisis and its remedies are the primary absent elements from the electoral scene.
- Second, it has become clear and certain that political and party powers possess only political confrontation titles with their adversaries, and do not have any serious, realistic, or scientific vision for any solution. Thus, it is natural that none of them would present an electoral program outlining the real paths that need to be taken to place Lebanon on the road to recovery from the crisis.
- Third, the remedies that may contribute to solutions for the crisis have entered the political bazaar and bidding, with every party lurking at the other’s elbow, sharing a motto: "I obstruct you to obstruct me." From stalled reforms to appointments and formations, and ending with capital control and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.
Franjieh
In this context, head of the Marada Movement Sleiman Franjieh launched his electoral campaign "Your vote is your right... Your vote is sincere, daring, and honest," at the movement's headquarters in Bnachii. He indicated that "changing the way of thinking in society does not happen through intimidation and hatred, and we have worked on changing the tribal, bloody, and closed mentality while preserving family and true social life, encouraging people to love one another, becoming a symbol of democracy in Lebanon." He said, "In the past, the price of every election was blood, but today the image has changed, and that is the true change." He added, "We set aside personal enmity and remained with political antagonism. Whoever considers us enemies has their own problem; we confirm that our enmity is not easy, nor do we want to be enemies with anyone." He emphasized, "We do not favor flashy slogans; a responsible individual must realize the repercussions of their words to avoid embroiling people, as they are the ones responsible for their security and safety," considering that "the coming days will be better," urging "not to be pessimistic, particularly among the youth." He noted, "The naïve are those who follow a banner and are affected by a message reaching them without knowing its source; the naïve are those who follow parties with whom they have had multiple experiences and 'led people into walls,' but those who walk with individuals preserving their freedom of expression and dignity through all stages since the time of President Sleiman Franjieh and the martyred President Rashid Karami are not naïve. Your dignity and freedom are important to us. This region has 'listened with eyelashes' in every stage, our conscience is at peace, and our history is clear."
Jaaj
The head of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Jaaj, stated in a session with the electoral machine in Koura: "The 2022 parliamentary entitlement is different from its predecessors. We are engaging in a complete and comprehensive confrontation. If we obtain the majority, we can bring about change contrary to what some disappointed Lebanese have believed since the 1990s, that Lebanon cannot escape the crisis due to the worsening situation. This statement is inaccurate. Change is sufficient to turn this reality around, starting with the right choice on May 15 for change to be possible beyond that date." He observed that Hezbollah is not conducting the electoral battle to improve the lives, dignity, or future of Lebanese citizens, nor to enhance the economy, tourism, industry, education, or to improve Lebanon's Arab and international relations, but rather to protect the resistance and maintain the party's security and military organization, as it is currently operating, to continue its activities in Syria or to be prepared should it be required for any tasks in Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen, or any other country, in addition to continuing its work in serving the authority in Iran as it currently does." He stated, "If we assume that Hezbollah cannot combat corruption, which is not true, how do we explain its alliance with Jibran Basil, the most corrupt of the corrupt, across Lebanon, from Akkar to the South? How does it justify its pressure on most lists in various regions to ally with the Free Patriotic Movement? If you are not only fighting corruption but also aiding corruption and paving the way for it." He reiterated that "the Lebanese voter has two options: the first is Hezbollah's project along with its allies, which has become clear to everyone, and the second is our project, which has clear objectives aiming to build an actual Lebanese state, not merely symbolic, free of corruption and those who corrupt, seeking to restore Arab and international relations, in addition to mobilizing the economy to begin a normal life again."
**Hezbollah**
Sheikh Nabih Qawuq, a member of the Central Council of Hezbollah, asserted that "the enemies of the resistance and its opponents have worked through inducements and threats, imposing sanctions to isolate Hezbollah from its allies." He said: "Hezbollah has formed its electoral lists with the participation of its allies, leading its enemies to realize their miscalculations regarding the robustness of Hezbollah’s alliances. Thus, Hezbollah enjoys the widest strategic alliances that transcend sects and regions." Sheikh Qawuq affirmed that "on May 15, the ballot boxes will witness the failure of the project to isolate Hezbollah from its national alliances, and that sanctions and pressures failed to alter our strategic alliances, rather they have solidified them." He concluded: "The axis of Hezbollah's opponents, with American and Saudi support, inflated their sizes, enlarging their delusions and imaginations to the extent that their slogan became the disarmament of Hezbollah, which Israel could not accomplish in 33 days. Therefore, the day of May 15 will return them to their true sizes and the world of awakening."
**Negotiations with the Fund**
On another front, the mission of the International Monetary Fund delegation in Beirut continues, and the new topic presented with the Lebanese side is the restructuring of banks, as announced by Deputy Prime Minister Saadé Shami, in addition to achieving an economic recovery plan, approving the budget in Parliament, and enacting the capital control project, hoping to sign the preliminary agreement soon, followed by implementing prior measures before the final signature. Shami also highlighted: "There is no conflict of views regarding the distribution of losses, which will be distributed among the state, the Central Bank, the banks, and the depositors. However, the state has gone bankrupt, and so has the Central Bank, the loss has occurred, and we will seek to minimize the losses for the people." Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed during the fourth meeting of the "Reform, Recovery, and Reconstruction Framework 3RF for Economic Recovery in Lebanon," coordinated jointly between the United Nations, the European Union, and the World Bank: "The government is working through the concerned authorities in the public sector to unify the vision for development, recovery, and reform among stakeholders." He said: "We are nearing the end of unifying this vision to implement the necessary reforms."
**French Ambassador**
In a related context, French Ambassador Anne Grillo announced that "France remains fully committed to supporting Lebanon and all Lebanese." She stated that in order to confront the economic and financial emergency situation, the priority is to quickly finalize a comprehensive agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the only solution that directs Lebanon towards resuming growth, benefiting businesses.
**Economic Entities**
A lengthy meeting took place yesterday between the committee assigned by economic bodies and the head of the International Monetary Fund mission, Ernesto Rigo Ramirez, where the economic bodies emphasized the following:
- The responsibility for the financial collapse rests primarily with the state, the central bank, and the banks sequentially.
- Strong opposition to what is being proposed in the plan regarding reversing this hierarchy of responsibility, exonerating the state, and burdening depositors and banks with the cost of covering the financial gap, thereby converting state debt into heavy losses borne by the Lebanese community and economy.
- The approach being worked on is unjust and completely unfair, as the mentioned amounts have been squandered and continue to be used until today to stabilize the exchange rate, differences in interests, government purchases, and ongoing spending, along with supporting consumable goods. Accordingly, it is unjust to hold citizens accountable for the certain and verified mistakes committed by the state. More precisely, placing part of the burden solely on certain citizens, depositors, and banks constitutes unconstitutional discrimination before the public funds spent by the state for the benefit of all Lebanese.
- Urgent demand for the state to acknowledge, as a moral entity, its fundamental and undeniable responsibility in creating the large financial gap and to reaffirm its commitment to provide the largest financial contribution to fill it through the establishment of a sovereign fund to invest for this purpose, considering that this is the only way to restore trust in Lebanon and to avoid delivering a fatal blow to depositors, the banking system, and the national economy alike.
- Emphasis, fundamentally, on the necessity of focusing the recovery plan on a fundamental issue concerning reviving the heartbeat of the national economy to achieve solid economic growth and create job opportunities, by stimulating economic sectors, particularly productive sectors instead of undermining them.
