The pace of political preparations for the mandatory parliamentary consultations to name the new Prime Minister intensified yesterday. Sources following the designation file told "Al-Jumhuria" that after the date for the mandatory consultations was set, political forces and parties are busy evaluating the situation in order to make a final decision regarding the nomination. Sources confirmed to "Al-Jumhuria" that communications and meetings have opened up to discuss political and numerical calculations. While Mikati remains the strong candidate amid the mention of names that have not proven serious yet, various scenarios are being considered, most of which sources deem unrealistic, predicting that the designation process will resemble the previous one.
According to the data, the "Development and Liberation" bloc has finalized its position regarding naming Mikati, along with "Moustaqbal," "Tashnag," and the North Deputies bloc. Additionally, the "Democratic Gathering" is studying the matter. Jumblatt has sent deputies Wael Bou Faour and Akram Shehayeb to Ain Al-Tineh to discuss this with the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. "Al-Jumhuria" reports that the "Democratic Gathering" is seeking to unify its stance with the "Lebanese Forces," which will hold a meeting at the beginning of the week to discuss this issue before making a final decision. Should the deputies of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc join in naming Mikati, it is likely that he will secure 65 votes. Meanwhile, the "Strong Lebanon" bloc, as in the previous instance, will not name Mikati but will tie its confidence to settlements that are concluded or could be concluded during the formation process. On the other hand, the 17 deputies of the change forces announced that they will not vote for Mikati, with some intending to nominate Nawaf Salam or abstain from naming anyone, thus allowing Mikati to secure a sectarian consensus facilitating his return to the Prime Minister's office.
Furthermore, informed sources confirmed to "Al-Jumhuria" that if Mikati is designated next Thursday, as expected, he is determined to engage in governmental formation negotiations with high expectations and a firm stance, particularly in facing the anticipated demands from President Michel Aoun and the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Deputy Gebran Bassil.
These sources noted that Mikati enjoys support from international and domestic parties, and he will rely on this support in the formation negotiations, indicating he has received advice to avoid being lenient. Additionally, following the call for assignment consultations, sources familiar with the atmosphere at the presidential palace revealed to "Al-Jumhuria" that the interval until next Thursday's appointment "was very necessary" and serves as a reminder for parliamentary blocs to start considering their candidates to form the new government and engage in the anticipated dialogue regarding this entitlement. The sources pointed out that any other interpretation of this period does not concern the President, who simply granted more time for the parliamentary blocs to arrive at decisions regarding the assignment amid the new alignments resulting from the parliamentary elections, whether traditional or newly formed. He wants the consultations to be conducted in a positive atmosphere that reflects the deputies' understanding of the scale of the crisis the country is facing and its need for a cohesive government, in addition to what is urgently required to ensure the country's interests in facilitating the formation process before the eternal designation.
In response to a question from "Al-Jumhuria" regarding the significant number of independent and individual deputies, these sources revealed that during the communications held before setting the consultations schedule, the relevant circles were not informed of the regularity of the change deputies or others in any parliamentary bloc. If this happens before the consultation date, they should inform the palace circles, which welcome such a step, as the schedule is not fixed and can be adjusted if that is achieved.
These sources denied narratives about any prior meetings the President intends to hold with any parliamentary blocs before next Thursday.
### Three Scenarios:
In addition, parliamentary sources signaled through "An-Nabaa" that three scenarios are being discussed away from the limelight. The first involves re-nominating Prime Minister Najib Mikati to form the government based on the principle of supplementing the current government with five to six new ministers while retaining those who have proven their seriousness and effectiveness in work or who have Mikati's approval. The government's mission would be confined to two matters: negotiating with the International Monetary Fund and passing the time until after the presidential elections. After successfully completing the presidential entitlement, a government of independent specialists would be formed.
The second scenario entails re-designating Mikati to form the government under specific criteria, starting with restoring international confidence in Lebanon, implementing reforms, and negotiating with the IMF. This is something that most active political forces agree on, except for the "Strong Lebanon" bloc, whose leader Gebran Bassil opposes Mikati's return to the presidential palace.
The third scenario focuses on naming a new figure who is accepted regionally and internationally and is capable of restoring confidence in Lebanon. Among the circulating names are Ambassador Nawaf Salam and former minister Raya Hasan. However, this scenario faces obstacles, primarily due to the inability to form a government and keeping the country under the mercy of a caretaker government.
