Late on Monday night, President Michel Aoun sat alongside his son-in-law, Deputy Gibran Bassil, Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab, and other advisors, awaiting a call from U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein. The attendees listened to what he said over the phone. The American spoke in a direct businesslike manner, stating that what he conveyed was Israel's final position regarding the disputed areas with Lebanon, a position fully supported by the United States. He continued that Line 29 and the Karish field belong to Israel, and Lebanon has no relation to them or any natural resources within them; likewise, Line 23 and the Qana field also belong to Israel, and Lebanon might enter negotiations to benefit from some resources within this line, provided Lebanon resolves the stalled border demarcation file. Hochstein requested a Lebanese response within no more than ten hours; otherwise, Lebanon would lose even the possibility of negotiating with Israel to benefit from the Qana field, and Israel would immediately begin drilling, extraction, and preparing for transport. Hochstein ended the call, leaving no room for Aoun to respond or comment. Bou Saab, who has a friendship with Hochstein, attempted to intervene, but the latter hung up before he could do so, leaving the attendees in Baabda shocked by Hochstein's arrogance.
President Aoun contacted Prime Minister Najib Mikati to inform him of the call's content and did the same with Speaker Nabih Berri, who wished that the President keep the matter confidential to prevent public pressures that could lead to reckless decisions with unknown consequences. The ten-hour timeframe given by Hochstein has passed, and to this day, the American mediator has not received any Lebanese response to the Israeli proposal. There is a prevailing belief among the resistance axis in Lebanon, as well as among the President's advisors, that the United States and Israel are resorting to intimidation to force Lebanon to comply with their dictates, and that Lebanon should raise the challenge level; because Israel cannot bear the consequences of a war with Lebanon due to the destruction that the resistance's missiles would cause on its cities and settlements, as well as material losses, including the "Energean" ship docked off the coast of Naqoura, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build. These challenges, despite their superficiality and consequences, do not differ from the challenge posed by the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser when he closed the Tiran Straits to Israeli shipping in the Gulf of Aqaba, betting on Israel retracting its aggressions. Of course, the late Egyptian president did not realize that Israel had long been preparing for a large military operation on three fronts simultaneously and had set a trap for Nasser, resulting in the 1967 War, from whose consequences we still suffer.
We are now faced with Iran's challenge to reach a new agreement with the "Americans" concerning Iranian nuclear activities. Here, we must pause at the Israeli position: it seems that the Mossad and the Israeli army (again) are in disagreement regarding a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The Mossad opposes it, unlike military intelligence, which favors it, claiming that the deal buys time, allowing the Israeli army to prepare. First, this is not the first time these two agencies have argued. There were disagreements in 2015 as well. The Israeli army traditionally prefers to kick the can down the road when it comes to Iran. Four former chiefs of staff opposed military action: Aviv Kochavi, Eizenkot, Benny Gantz, and Gabi Ashkenazi. Second, announcing the disagreement on the eve of Biden's visit and the transfer of power to Yair Lapid (acting Israeli Prime Minister) is an attempt to influence the next steps. Finally, we must consider what Israel has long suffered from—a difficulty in reconciling what might happen: it realizes that a deal will occur with or without it. Benjamin Netanyahu fought the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action tooth and nail but failed to stop it. If the new talks are serious and Iran wants an agreement, there will be one. Israel can protest, but it cannot stop it.
Qatar's welcome for hosting indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Doha to revive the nuclear deal has been noted. This is something Qatar has sought for a while, aligning with its ambitions to be seen as a mediator in resolving disputes. Tehran has become increasingly desperate to restore balance to the deterrence equation with Israel following the deaths of several activists in Iran and the exposure of assassination teams sent to Turkey to target Israeli tourists.
In one segment of the Davos conference held on the tenth of this month, titled "Energy Prospects: Overcoming the Crisis," German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck discussed the urgent need to find an alternative source to Russian gas and oil, not only because the war in Ukraine will prolong but because its repercussions will last long after the guns fall silent; hence, the German official says, "Finding other sources is an existential issue for Europe and the West in general." From here, we realize the urgency for Israel and the United States to extract gas from fields that have confirmed the existence of about 3 trillion cubic feet of gas since exploration began in 2010, with an estimated 1.5 trillion cubic feet in the Qana field, which Israel will fully supply to Europe to compensate for Russian gas, and will use all available means to implement this with absolute support from Western Europe and the United States.
For some time, Israel has been conducting military and logistical drills, including evacuation exercises for residents of border settlements with Lebanon, intensifying monitoring of the border strip, and firing indiscriminately across it towards Lebanon, in addition to reconnaissance drones and aerial sorties deeply penetrating its sovereignty; this is in preparation for any aggression that "Hezbollah" might undertake. Western intelligence reports have shown that Israel's bombing of Damascus airport, rendering it inoperative, was based on close information about the transfer of weapons and explosives from Iran to Syria and then overland to Lebanon; thus, the supply routes to "Hezbollah" were closed, except for Beirut airport, which Israel would not hesitate to bomb if weapons were transferred through it.
From here, the horizons appear blocked for "Hezbollah" and its masters in Iran. The "Energean" company, which owns the giant extraction ship, announced that gas extraction will begin in mid-September, with the aim of liquefying and transporting it by sea to Europe before the upcoming winter season. If Hassan Nasrallah does not adhere to his promise to prevent gas extraction before agreeing on Lebanon's rights, then his weapon and legitimacy become void, even if he resorts to the claim that the state has not requested his intervention. However, if he engages in military action, perhaps instigated by his lords in Iran, to turn the tables on everyone and revive frozen files, especially the nuclear agreement with the United States, then Israel will receive a painful first blow and will respond with multiple strikes on Lebanon from its far north to its south and from its west to its east, leaving nothing intact of what remains of the infrastructure and killing innocent civilians in their homes who will find no one to defend them after the party has antagonized its brethren in religion, blood, and history with its actions. Only then will the Lebanese understand what Israeli General Avichai Adraee meant when he said that Lebanon will become Israel's impoverished suburb. In any case, recently, the party established 15 observation points along the western part of the border, with each point containing a site or tower, and two to three housing units and storage facilities. Regarding this activity, the Israeli army's Northern Command Chief, Major General Amir Baram, stated, "Recently, there has been an increase in the construction of Hezbollah's front bases along the border. We know them; we know their names, and where they came from. When the day comes, they will pay the price along with those who sent them and the Lebanese border villages they use as military terrorist bases. We will destroy the entire infrastructure of engagement."
