The Lebanese tone regarding the border demarcation file is becoming increasingly positive. Officials are aligning their evaluations positively about the demarcation process, asserting that an agreement can be reached in the near term. President Michel Aoun appears optimistic about achieving a solution that does not undermine the leverage gained from launching drones toward the Karish field, which prompted the Israelis and Americans to send reassuring messages and demonstrate a serious intent to conclude negotiations swiftly.
What the Lebanese are counting on are the regional pathways seeking de-escalation and opening doors for negotiations, from U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to the region to the resumption of Iranian-American negotiations in Doha, which seems set to restart following Biden’s departure.
**Qatari Mediation**
It is true that Lebanon will not be present in these meetings and negotiations, but it will be affected by their repercussions, whether negative or positive. Hence, the Lebanese are betting on any serious indicators of progress in regional negotiations to reflect positively on the Lebanese situation, especially concerning the border demarcation.
Lebanese officials do not deny the reliance on a role that Qatar could play in establishing stability in Lebanon and assisting it politically and regionally to overcome its crises, particularly in the border demarcation file. Sources following the situation confirm that "the presidents who met with Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani asked him for Qatar to mediate in multiple files, primarily the border demarcation file, and even to play a role, if possible, in achieving a political settlement in Lebanon, as was the case in Doha in 2008."
**Improving Conditions**
Amid these negotiation efforts, the intelligence war between "Hezbollah" and the Israeli enemy continues. Relevant parties say this war will not lead to confrontation or battle, but remains within the framework of each side improving its position and conditions, illustrated by the launch of three drones by Hezbollah toward the Karish field. Previously, the party had deployed a drone toward the field before these three. This occurred on Wednesday, June 29. Notably, the Israelis did not announce this drone, similar to Hezbollah’s silence until the Israelis revealed it after the launch of the three drones. This behavior indicates a level of Israeli confusion in addressing this file.
**Positive Reverberations**
Prominent Lebanese sources assert that the drones served the Lebanese negotiation stance. President Michel Aoun has fully embraced it and placed it in the context of supporting the Lebanese position, showing determination to finalize the demarcation file before the end of his term. Among the positive outcomes of the drone operation, according to the same sources, were the French and Norwegian messages delivered to Lebanon and "Hezbollah," indicating that Israel does not seek escalation and is pursuing a solution and establishing calm. Meanwhile, a source following this file reports that following this operation and the messages, Hochstein re-engaged on the negotiation front, striving to reach a solution acceptable to both parties.
Discussions about achieving positive progress in the demarcation file have intensified, with Aoun announcing the possibility of nearing a resolution that satisfies all parties, underscoring the emergence of positive indicators; had the situation been otherwise, Lebanon would have halted negotiations.
**The Weapons File**
In contrast to Lebanon's positive investment in the drone operation, there were other positions opposing what Hezbollah has done, renewing the debate about the weapons and the party's operations, accused of launching its drones in response to regional developments not solely related to the demarcation file. The party refused to comment on this matter, maintaining that the results matter, while its alliance with Aoun continues to strengthen and extend beyond the presidency, against a backdrop of any renewed debate regarding arms and internal and external calls to bring up the disarmament file. This debate is expected to intensify after the demarcation file is concluded, if it happens, and will also be relevant as the renewal of UNIFIL forces will be discussed next month and during any discussions for a new presidential settlement.
