A source close to former Prime Ministers indicates that the decision made by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, to launch an attack on caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati reflects an increase in the anxiety he feels as Lebanon approaches the constitutional deadline for electing a new president. The source asserts to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that Bassil has not spared any of his political opponents in the wars he fights both on his own behalf and by proxy for President Michel Aoun. The majority of his campaigns have focused on Mikati, under the pretext that he has obstructed Bassil's political rehabilitation by refusing to comply with his conditions for forming a new government.
The source points out that the exchange of media attacks between the Free Patriotic Movement and Mikati's media office—which has gone beyond the norm in political discourse—should not distract from the difficult situation Bassil is in, as he feels compelled to "punish" Mikati for his failure to meet his government formation conditions, thus attempting to compensate for his name being removed from the list of candidates for the presidential elections.
The source adds that Bassil is playing his last card by using the Free Patriotic Movement as his last line of defense to settle scores with Mikati after having difficulty dragging the Strong Lebanon Bloc into his campaigns, especially since the independent MPs within his bloc are not inclined to participate due to their own political calculations regarding the post-Aoun era. The same source accuses Bassil of having no presidential candidate besides the void, attributing it to his declining chances. He states that Bassil is trying to corner his ally Hezbollah in anticipation of the possibility of supporting former MP Sleiman Frangieh's presidential candidacy, claiming that his only ally with significant political weight left is the Free Patriotic Movement, which provides cover for his weapons.
The source believes that Bassil is engaged in his battles to settle scores with the presidential candidates, which explains his refusal to support Frangieh's candidacy on the grounds that the individual assuming the first presidency should ideally possess popular representation and his insistence on obstructing the potential entry of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun into the competition or other general directors by calling them to fulfill their official duties.
It is revealed that individuals affiliated with Aoun and Bassil's political team had proposed, in the penultimate Cabinet session, the possibility of issuing a round of appointments to dismiss the Army Commander along with several general directors. However, Mikati rejected this proposal due to the negative repercussions it would entail, particularly targeting the military institution, which the international community views as the only functional institution alongside other security agencies that have not been affected by the disintegration of state institutions, which are no longer able to fulfill their required duties due to the living crisis affecting the vast majority of Lebanese.
The same source confirms that Bassil decided to set political traps for Mikati after realizing he is no longer in the lead for the presidential race, coinciding with his inability to bring in a president to succeed Aoun who would extend his political legacy. This is particularly pertinent as Frangieh, who remains ahead of other candidates, shows no willingness to submit to his political demands lest he becomes a proxy president for the Free Patriotic Movement.
The source continues by indicating that Frangieh would not risk his political capital if he were to agree to Bassil's conditions, and consequently, he will find no options other than escalating the situation to potentially derail the presidential elections and postpone their accomplishment within the constitutional timeframe, as he has been known to disrupt the formation of governments since the first government formed in 2008, which included the Free Patriotic Movement for the first time.
In this context, the source reveals that since 2008, eight governments have been formed, taking on average about six months to form, aside from the disruptions of Cabinet sessions and the sessions designated for electing a new president, which were stalled for more than two and a half years, only resuming with Aoun's election.
The source asserts that Bassil has begun to worry because he lacks the ability to impose a new president, as well as to secure a place for himself in any settlement that should coincide with the president's election. He states that Bassil today is different from what he will be after October 31st, which contributes to his anxiety after the collapse of his defensive lines due to his prioritization of state apparatuses and administrations during the "strong era" to serve his political ambitions.
It is mentioned that Bassil lost the government formation battle despite the support he receives from Aoun, harmonizing with his conditions. This has led him to declare political war on Mikati. The same source argues that what "distinguishes" the strong era in its negative aspect from its predecessors is that it is likely to end its term without achieving any accomplishment, except that it formed a political lever for its political heir.
Although the same source would prefer Mikati to distance himself from entering into a dispute with Bassil—who will certainly not be the strongest link in the political settlement, unlike Mikati, who continues to lead the caretaker government beyond Aoun's term—he believes that the response should extend to Aoun, who has failed to act properly. Instead of being the unifier among Lebanese, he has abandoned his role, allowing his son-in-law to disrupt the partnership among the Lebanese and engaging in elimination wars that nearly jeopardized his relationship with Hezbollah by allowing a number of hard-liners within the Free Patriotic Movement to target the party's weapons, possibly in a bid to sell their positions to Washington in an attempt to lift the US sanctions imposed on them.
The source emphasizes that Bassil's attack on Mikati, covered by Aoun, indicates that the latter is targeting the Sunni community and is bolstering himself at their expense, benefiting from the reluctance of former prime ministers to run, which has led to their representation being fragmented in the parliament. Thus, coexistence with the prime ministers, including former Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who was forced to separate from him after betting on him to remain at the head of the government, has become impossible.
Therefore, Mikati's battle is fundamentally with Aoun and his agent Bassil, extending the strong era's wars against the first position of the Sunni community in the political equation. The former prime ministers, as the source states, collectively agree that those who claimed to be reformers and change-makers are the ones who led the country to collapse and were behind the destruction of its relations with Arab countries and the international community after willingly placing their cards in the basket of the resistance axis led by Iran.
