The Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, appears quite certain that the negotiations at Naqoura between Lebanon and Israel, with U.S. mediation and United Nations sponsorship regarding the maritime border demarcation, will resume after the visit that starts today by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein, the senior advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State for Energy Security. This is in accordance with the framework agreement announced on October 1, 2020. When asked why there has been no discussion on the land borders despite the framework's stipulation that the two matters are interlinked, he responded, "We are going to Naqoura, and when the maritime demarcation takes place, it will facilitate the land demarcation..."
However, Berri, who believes that forming a government requires a "miracle," left all possibilities open regarding the presidential election, despite hinting at his inclination toward the leader of the "Mard" party, Sleiman Frangieh, due to Frangieh's statement following their meeting last Tuesday that it was "in the interest of Lebanon." When he was reminded that all candidates say they work for Lebanon's interest, he replied, "If everyone claims they are working for Lebanon’s interest, it doesn't necessarily mean that their practices align."
In his meeting with journalists on Saturday afternoon, Berri seemed on the verge of achieving the success he has sought over the past years of negotiations, sometimes under the spotlight and often away from it, culminating in the framework agreement that led to the indirect negotiations in Naqoura on October 14, 2020. In addition to being the "spiritual father" of the framework agreement, it appeared that by announcing this, he sought to regain the initiative on the demarcation file, which had been captured by President Michel Aoun's team and then by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who threatened to target the "Karish field and beyond" with drones.
Despite Berri stating, "When we walked into the framework agreement we did not delve into the issue of lines or about our rights to 100 or 1,000 square kilometers," data indicated that when he announced the framework in 2020, it crowned secret communications that relied fundamentally on maritime line 23 for Lebanon's rights. The confidential discussions he conducted with the American side had reportedly secured a large part of the disputed 860 square kilometers between Lebanon and Israel, situated between the rejected Hof line and line 23. It was hoped that the remaining area would be obtained through the Naqoura negotiations, had it not been for the proposal to adopt the negotiating Lebanese delegation's line 29, which led to a freeze after four rounds since both the Israeli side and the American mediator rejected this line, considering it would undermine the negotiations.
This raises the question: should the resumption of negotiations in Naqoura crown Lebanon's demand to obtain the 23+ line (meaning that this line would curve in a semi-circular manner around the small part of the Qana field that exceeds this line to ensure that Lebanon gets that field in full, before returning straight into the depths of the sea)? This was included in the Lebanese offer to Hochstein during his last visit on June 14. Will returning to the Naqoura sessions serve to consolidate what is presumed to have been achieved in Hochstein's efforts between the two sides, just as the initiation of negotiations in 2020 was supposed to be an agreement to complete what Berri had achieved by obtaining the total area of 860 square kilometers?
While Berri's insistence on returning to Naqoura left room for skepticism in some optimistic circles about Hochstein's return, other well-informed circles suggest that the American mediator has not brought anything that allows for the demarcation of the borders to be completed soon, and that returning to the negotiation format in Naqoura provides hope for potential results and extends opportunities for discussions, serving as a means to prevent any security upheavals.
In his press briefing on Saturday, Berri emphasized that "the conclusive answer will come the day after tomorrow, and God willing, we will go to Naqoura. What we have heard indicates that we will return to the framework agreement and nothing else, which is what the three presidents agreed upon. The economic and security conditions do not allow for any dilution." He recalled his speech after being re-elected as Speaker of Parliament on May 31, in which he urged the 128 MPs to say a clear, strong, and unified "yes" against any relinquishment of Lebanon's sovereign rights regarding its water resources. He added, "No to concession or compromise or normalization by an inch, no matter the pressures... Qana field entirely or none at all." This applies to rejecting any suggestions mentioned regarding Israel proposing a company to distribute the gas and oil production between Lebanon and Israel, describing the matter as "out of the question." When discussing whether a Qatari company would handle the distribution of production from joint fields, Berri believes that "there are many statements, but the truth lies elsewhere."
He expects "the conclusive answer by going to Naqoura," reiterating the agreement among the three presidents that the President of the Republic negotiates, with the delegation being military. When asked if the meaning of "the other thing" (avoiding) war is implied, he responded, "I did not say that," but when asked if Hezbollah's drones aided in the return to Naqoura, he stated, "Without a doubt." He considers Europe's need for gas to expedite the agreement on demarcation.
Regarding the return of gas and oil exploration companies, Berri reminded that he had previously communicated with France through its embassy and the presidency, asserting that there is no justification for Total not to begin exploration in the selected area, as it is located 25 kilometers away from the disputed zone, but the Americans do not want it.
He denied that importing gas from Egypt and electricity from Jordan was linked to the agreement on border demarcation, noting that during his reception of the former World Bank director in Lebanon and the new director, he was informed that the condition for financing the importation of Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity is the formation of the regulatory body for the electricity sector, which Lebanon must establish first, second, and eleven times, according to a law passed 14 years ago that has not been implemented, saying, "Not everything (the delay) is the Americans' fault."
As for the presidential election, Berri modified what had leaked regarding his potential invitation to Parliament for the president's election session since the constitutional deadline began on September 1, linking it to Parliament's completion of laws and reforms related to the agreement with the International Monetary Fund during August, which he deemed important to benefit from, stating they started with passing the most challenging one in the last session, namely the law amending the banking secrecy law. He awaits the government to provide him with the budget based on the exchange rate it requested several times but has not provided. He added, "Even if I delay beyond September 1, that will be the reason, because we must meet the next president with a fresh atmosphere." However, he added, "The responsibilities of the Speaker are not just to call for a session. Two factors play a role in that: the first is completing the reform laws, and the second is the mechanism for communication between the parties (to agree on the next president).
Although he wished that there would be no presidential vacuum, when asked about the necessity of constitutional amendments if Army Commander General Joseph Aoun were to be elected president, he insisted on "applying the constitution." But when it was pointed out that it had not been amended for the election of President Michel Sleiman, he replied, "A deadline surpass happened (the six-month deadline obliging the Army Commander to resign before election, which lapsed due to the presidential vacuum following President Emile Lahoud's term), so if any Maronite nominates himself for the presidency, he is entitled to do so." However, he noted that "there is no majority or minority in Parliament, and this was evident in the elections and parliamentary committees and the council presidency."
In response to a question concerning Cardinal Bechara al-Rahi's specifications for the next president and his Christian status, Berri said, "Since my presidency of the council in 1992, have I proceeded with any matter (that does not consider) any Christian status? Lebanon is diverse in colors. The president must have a Christian and Islamic flavor, and above all, a national one to be unifying." He compared the current state concerning the absence in the Sunni arena to the situation in 1992 when Christians boycotted the elections, except in the south, resulting in a lopsided country. "Today, with all due respect to the Sunni MPs, the elections proved from Akkar to Naqoura that (the Future Movement) has its place, hence there are differences in opinions, and I hear that the Mufti will gather them on a unified stance." He confirmed he is not in communication with President Hariri but indicated he had told him when he informed him of his decision (to withdraw from elections and suspend political action) that he did not understand this choice.
Berri opposed dividing Beirut Municipality because "Lebanon is too small to be divided; like an atom, if divided, it explodes," and he ruled out any security incidents due to the tensions in the country.
Berri's role returns to the forefront regarding demarcation, as well as the presidential election, along with Parliament's share in passing reforms demanded by the IMF. Although he did not deny disagreements with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, he stressed that it does not spoil friendship and he contacted him to arrange a meeting for the three presidents or a bilateral meeting during their attendance at the Army Day celebration, which was also a subject of contact with Aoun on Saturday, who said his relationship with him is "very good." Sources informed Nidaa al-Watan that Berri accuses Mikati in his circles of delaying the approval of the budget due to his failure to define the exchange rate, as some visitors have carried that tone to him, while he said to journalists that the budget is "ready, and if the unification of the exchange rate comes to me, we will set a session to discuss it; it is a condition not in my hands..."
He merely called for the application of the law concerning the case of the patriarchal general vicar for the Maronites, Bishop Moussa Al-Hajj.
Regarding the accusation from the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, that Berri is responsible for the failure of President Aoun's term and the possibility of an agreement with him, Berri asked, "Was he in agreement with everyone but me? If the statement is true, I would bear the responsibility. But what I warned against happened."
Berri considered that the disruptions that occurred in the recent parliamentary session "were given more weight in the media than necessary" and reported that, according to Al-Joumhouria, it was no coincidence that Berri held a candid meeting with some journalists on the eve of Hochstein's arrival for a pivotal visit likely to determine the direction of the maritime border demarcation file, as though the Speaker aimed to delineate its political boundaries that should not exceed Naqoura and the framework agreement.
While Berri believes that the resistance drones helped push the negotiations forward, he underscored that the economic and security conditions do not allow for any dilution of matters, firmly rejecting any form of normalization in the oil and gas file, whether through a joint fund or an international company. Berri was adamant in affirming that there would be no concession on national wealth, emphasizing that Lebanon wants the Qana field in full, on the basis of "either all of it or none at all," stating that what is required is a fair demarcation: "We want our rights, whether it's one kilometer or one hundred thousand square kilometers."
He does not fail to stress the importance of uniting the internal position in the diplomatic battle, indicating that when Lebanon unites on an issue, he never fears, recalling what he stated in his speech after being re-elected as the Speaker of Parliament, where he addressed his fellow MPs, saying: Let us be 128 explicit, strong, and unified "yes" against any forfeiture of Lebanon's sovereign rights and its oil wealth.
Berri clarifies that he informed the French that there is absolutely no justification for Total not to commence drilling in a region located 25 km² from the disputed borders, considering that Total's withdrawal is due to U.S. pressure.
Berri points out that the Russian-Ukrainian war may expedite reaching an agreement due to the international need for gas.
**The Miracle Waits**
Regarding the governmental matter, Berri's realism seemed harsh when he acknowledged that forming a new government requires a miracle, yet that did not prevent him from attempting to patch relations between the formation's poles, President Michel Aoun and designated Prime Minister Najib Mikati. He clarified that he discussed with Mikati the possibility of holding a meeting among the three presidents or at least between the President and the Prime Minister on the occasion of the Army Day celebration.
It is likely that Berri also discussed this proposal with Aoun during a phone conversation, as the Speaker of the Council insists that his relationship with his two partners in power is good.
**The Call for Election**
As for the presidential elections, Berri seems to reject being enslaved by pre-set dates, thus acting as if he is the master of his timing, indicating that he is not bound to call for a session to elect the President of the Republic at the beginning of September, and that he has leeway to set the date extending to the ten days before the end of the constitutional deadline.
Berri highlights that he will not set a date for the election session before completing the reform laws and the budget that the Parliament is supposed to approve in August, "and if I delay in sending the invitation at the beginning of September, the only reason will be that I want to finish these laws that the IMF requests before we meet the new president in a new atmosphere." He added that the invitation is not a mechanical process, and if he were to send it before achieving some degree of internal understanding, it would be hasty.
Berri emphasizes that the council has the right to continue legislating during the constitutional period for electing the president, except during the last ten days when the council automatically becomes an electoral body. He adds with a smile: unfortunately, Jreissati (the advisor to the President) supported me in this opinion.
**The Characteristics of the President**
Berri asserts that the required president must reflect both a Christian and Islamic flavor, but before anything, a national flavor, indicating that the president should be a unifying figure and not a divisor, marking a sign of gathering rather than subtraction or division.
When asked whether Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Mard Movement, launched his presidential campaign from Ain al-Tineh after their recent meeting, he replied, "Any meeting or agreement with Sleiman Frangieh is certainly in Lebanon’s interest."
**The Christian Status**
When it is posed to Berri whether he can overlook the Christian status of the next president, he responds with a question: "Since I have been the Speaker since 1992, has there been any matter that has bypassed the Christian or Islamic status that I have allowed?” He insists that any matter causing even a semblance of a rift, he stopped.
He adds that Lebanon is colorful in its sects, which is a blessing, yet they have turned it into sectarianism, which is a curse. Nevertheless, Lebanon is too small to be divided, just like an atom that explodes upon division.
Asked whether he anticipates moving towards amending the Taif Agreement, Berri notes that the law is not enforced in Lebanon, so how can the Taif be amended?
**The Sunni MPs**
Regarding his view on the ramifications of Saad Hariri's exit from the political arena, Berri points out that he did not agree with Hariri's decision to withdraw, stating, "I told him that when he visited me to inform me of his decision." He notes that the current Parliament, lacking the Future Movement, resembles the 1992 council, when Christians boycotted the parliamentary elections, causing Lebanon to be lopsided at that time.
He continues: "This time, and with all due respect to the Sunni MPs, the parliamentary elections proved from Akkar to Naqoura that the Future Movement has its significant space, and I have heard that the Mufti wants to gather them so that there is a unified approach to challenges and entitlements, and I encourage that."
**They Will Chase Me if...**
With the approaching anniversary of the port explosion, Berri insists on adhering to the Constitution when addressing the investigation surrounding this matter, denying that the insistence on the High Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers is an evasion of accountability and truth. He adds: “I have no objection to resorting to the ordinary judiciary, but first repeal the constitutional provisions concerning the role of the High Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, or else I will be pursued if I do not implement the Constitution, for which blood has been shed."
Then Berri quickly remarks: "If I were convinced that Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zaiter blew up the port of Beirut, I would not have let them sleep in their homes."
**Failing the Term**
Concerning being accused by the leader of the National Free Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, of failing President Michel Aoun's term, Berri replies succinctly: "If they experience a problem from God, they say Nabih Berri." He continues: "By the way, is Gebran in agreement with everyone except me?"
Regarding Bishop Moussa Al-Hajj's case, Berri merely states: "Apply the law."
**Electricity Issues**
In the electricity crisis file, Berri reveals that he was informed by a representative of the World Bank that the reason for the failure to import electricity to Lebanon from Jordan is the Lebanese state’s ongoing failure to appoint the regulatory body, noting that a law in this regard was enacted 14 years ago, explaining that the World Bank linked its financing of the project to the establishment of the regulatory body.
**Sexual Harassment**
Commenting on the exchanges and insults during the first legislative session of Parliament, Berri notes that the matter was exaggerated and given more weight than deserved, stating, "It happens more than that in councils around the world; in any case, all the deputies are colleagues and deserving of respect."
In this context, he points out that the Parliament has previously passed laws against domestic violence and sexual harassment and for the protection of women from violence.
He expresses surprise at Amnesty International's intervention, issuing a statement without consulting or listening to their opinion, "unless these are NGOs from Lebanon as well."
**The Burden of Displaced Persons**
Berri emphasizes the necessity of the return of Syrian refugees, asserting that it is crucial for the economy and the Lebanese situation in general, pointing out that most of them came from areas that have now been liberated and are safe, thus there is no justification for their non-return. He mentions that "our Syrian brothers consume about 450,000 loaves of bread daily, and as long as they are here, we must care for them as we care for ourselves. But why don't they return to areas that have become under the state's control?"
**The Real Mess for Officials**
Regarding the mess that the Lebanese people experience due to the bread crisis, Berri succinctly states: "The real mess is for the officials."
