With the issuance of the 2022 budget law in a special edition of the official gazette today, the Lebanese state has met most of the conditions set forth in the preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund. However, there are intense debates surrounding the "Capital Control" law, which remains under discussion in parliamentary committees.
In this context, the budget becomes effective immediately upon its issuance in the official gazette. A source in the Ministry of Finance informed "Al-Markaziah" that the official dollar (or customs dollar) included in the budget under the revenues section will be delayed in its implementation, likely becoming effective starting from December. Consequently, the Lebanese will have only a few weeks before facing a list of rising prices that accompany the new budget figures.
There is no denying that the approval of the budget has created a sense of relief among retirees and public sector employees and has fostered a climate of "financial legitimacy" that reassures both the International Monetary Fund and the Lebanese economy ahead of the holidays.
Experts have noted a political intent among factions to spare the country any turmoil that could arise from the approval of laws, particularly the Capital Control law. Laws mired in political disputes and subject to populism will not be approved until a President is elected to end the vacuum in the presidency and produce a new effective government.
On another note, there is hope for holiday seasons in attracting tourists and expatriates, which might ease the economic situation somewhat and alleviate the living crisis for the Lebanese people. Therefore, it must be acknowledged that there is a single political consensus that transcends disputes, centered on the necessity of calming the internal situation from now until the beginning of the upcoming year. As a result, no decisions, measures, or laws, including the Capital Control law, will be adopted that could stir conflicts or lead to street protests, potentially disrupting the festive atmosphere during the anticipated holidays.
Even the parliamentary sessions designated for electing a President will be postponed until after the holidays to avoid any tensions that could disturb the festive ambiance. Hence, the period leading up to the New Year will serve as a phase of calm to ensure the stability sought by expatriates and tourists. As for what comes after, we will address each incident as it arises.
