The Russian state bank (VEB) announced its forecasts today, stating that natural gas exports via pipelines to the European Union may decrease to 21 billion cubic meters this year, which is about two-thirds lower than last year and less than one-sixth of the amount in 2021. VEB expects total Russian natural gas exports this year to drop to 100 billion cubic meters from 131 billion cubic meters in 2022. According to calculations by Reuters, Gazprom's exports, which are controlled by the Kremlin, to Europe via pipelines have decreased to approximately 17.7 billion cubic meters so far this year.
Europe has significantly reduced its purchases of Russian oil and gas following what Moscow described as a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Europe was able to overcome the energy crisis that was feared during the winter of 2022-2023 due to efforts to reduce energy consumption and find alternative suppliers. According to VEB's forecasts, Russian gas exports to Europe are expected to decline to 15 billion cubic meters by 2026, while Russia will not be able to significantly increase gas supplies to Asia due to infrastructure constraints.
VEB also expects Russian crude oil exports to decrease to 230 million tons (4.6 million barrels per day) this year, down from 248 million tons in 2022, with a potential drop in supplies to the European Union to 41 million tons from 115 million tons. Earlier today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia will extend its voluntary reduction of oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year "to maintain stability and balance" in oil markets. VEB anticipates an increase in Russian oil exports to 239 million tons by 2026, thanks to enhanced exports to China and India.
