Predictions of Global Trade Contraction in 2023

A trade agency affiliated with the United Nations predicted today, Monday, a contraction of global trade volume by five percent in 2023 compared to last year, with generally pessimistic forecasts for 2024. In an update on global trade, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that trade this year will reach nearly $30.7 trillion. According to the agency, trade in goods is expected to shrink by about $2 trillion in 2023, or by eight percent, while trade in services is expected to increase by about $500 billion, or seven percent. The contraction in global trade has been attributed to several factors, including weak performance of exports from developing countries. UNCTAD stated, "Global trade has experienced a decline throughout 2023, primarily affected by decreasing demand in developed countries, weak performance in East Asian economies, and falling commodity prices." It added that "these combined factors contributed to a notable contraction in goods trade." The agency noted that the outlook for global trade in 2024 remains "largely uncertain and generally pessimistic."