Data released by the United Nations on Wednesday reveals that India is on track to become the world's most populous country, surpassing China by about three million people by mid-year.
Estimates from the UN's World Population Report for 2023 indicate that "India's population will reach 1.4286 billion compared to 1.4257 billion for China." The data shows that "the United States ranks third by a significant margin, with an estimated population of around 340 million."
Population experts, based on previous UN data, had anticipated that "India would overtake China this month," but the latest report did not specify a timeline for this event. UN population officials stated, "It is impossible to determine a date due to uncertainty regarding data from India and China, especially since the last census in India was conducted in 2011 and the next census, originally scheduled for 2021, was postponed due to the pandemic."
Although India and China will account for more than a third of the estimated global population of around 8.045 billion, the population growth rates for both Asian giants are slowing, with a much faster decline in China than in India.
China's population decreased last year for the first time in six decades, marking a historical shift that is expected to begin a prolonged period of decline in its citizen numbers, which will have significant repercussions for its economy.
India's average annual population growth rate has been 1.2 percent since 2011, compared to 1.7 percent in the preceding decade, according to government data.
