Various political indicators suggest that this week will be decisive regarding the government, as the presidency appears closer to a vacancy than to a resolution, according to observable evidence. Sources monitoring the situation believe the government is in a state of labor, hoping for its establishment by next Thursday, which may also coincide with the fifth electoral session for the presidency.
For this electoral session, according to diplomatic sources in Beirut, the proposal is to elect a Maronite figure who meets the necessary consensus qualifications and possesses the ability to take a firm stance. The name of former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud has been mentioned. If the quorum is not met for this session, it may lead to a vacancy.
If Thursday arrives without President Michel Aoun signing the decree to form the Mikati government, Lebanon will face two vacancies: one in the presidency and another in the executive authority, leaving only constitutional and security chaos ahead, as warned by the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Gibran Bassil. From this chaos, international intervention could occur.
This bleak scenario has been circulating in Beirut since the failure of the second round of presidential elections. Current data suggests that the international forces deployed in southern Lebanon under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, tasked with assisting the Lebanese state in reestablishing its authority over its entire territory, will be prepared to expand their deployment.
It has been acknowledged that electing a president is no longer possible without international and regional consensus, which remains unclear in the near future, especially with the expanding involvement in the Ukrainian war, particularly concerning Iran, which has been accused of supplying Russia with drones used in the attacks on Ukraine, coinciding with renewed Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in Syria, according to these sources.
