Since the middle of last week, organized campaigns to drag Jordan into chaos under the pretext of defending Gaza have intensified. These campaigns are clearly visible on social media and evoke memories of the so-called "Arab Spring." Individuals and platforms affiliated with the "Muslim Brotherhood" in the region, as well as "Hamas" and "Al-Qassam Brigades," are participating in these campaigns. Additionally, media outlets in the region, which are supposed to have learned lessons from the past, are contributing to the incitement, but that is another story.
So, why is Jordan being targeted now? I will answer without beating around the bush. First, what is happening to Jordan is nothing new; the timing is part of a clear plan that has been in place since October 7, 2023. The targeting is not only aimed at Jordan but also at Egypt.
Certainly, the campaigns also include Saudi Arabia; however, the incitement plan against Egypt and Jordan differs. It relates to a long-standing aim to drag both countries into chaos and transform them into areas of Iranian influence under the guise of the issue. Meanwhile, the campaigns against Saudi Arabia aim to demonize Riyadh, and these attacks have never ceased.
For Jordan, amid the losses that "Hamas" is experiencing on the ground and the preparations for the post-Hamas day in Gaza, both Iran and the "Muslim Brotherhood" are wary of the consequences of losing an important front in the bidding and trafficking done in the name of the issue. The threat is real for Iran and the Brotherhood, even in the case of returning to a devastated Gaza, which requires international and Arab support for reconstruction—a support that will not occur as it did in previous wars on Gaza without the presence of the Palestinian Authority and real guarantees against a repeat of past events.
Additionally, due to Iran's fear of a potential loss on the "Hezbollah" front, which is currently facing successive blows from Israel, whether in Lebanon or Syria, Tehran seeks to ensure an alternative front, which is Jordan. This would involve imposing chaos within Jordan in order to achieve several significant objectives.
Destabilizing Jordan's security and stability, if it were to happen—God forbid—would provide Iran and its militias with an opportunity they have long sought: to expand supply lines from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea via Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, as well as to secure the rear of the regime in Damascus. This also includes having access on the Saudi and Egyptian borders, which is crucial for Iran, rather than opening a front with Israel.
Tehran operates in the region through its militias as if playing chess, surrounding moderate countries and exhausting them through militia activities, alongside the drug smuggling and other ensuing issues. Just as Iran established its influence in Lebanon through the southern suburbs and then the suburbs of Damascus (i.e., Sayyida Zainab neighborhood in Syria), it aims for other neighborhoods in the region close to the borders of moderate countries.
Moreover, any destabilization of stability in Jordan—God forbid—would represent an opportunity for "Hamas" and other factions to reposition themselves in Jordan, leading to chaos, similar to what occurred in Lebanon in the past, or in Jordan itself.
In summary: this is the plan, and those who think otherwise are mistaken. There is no room for good intentions here, as the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Therefore, it is essential to stand with Jordan and support it unequivocally; in matters of national security, neutrality is weakness.
