A year before the attack by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on southern Israel on October 7, the biography published about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu included a scenario eerily similar to what transpired on Israel’s deadliest day. Netanyahu wrote about a past plan by Hamas that was prepared ten years prior, which led Israeli forces to wage war in Gaza in 2014 to avoid such an attack, stating, "Hamas intended to surprise Israel by having hundreds of terrorists simultaneously breach the country’s borders." He added, "They planned to enter kindergartens and schools to kill Israelis and transport dozens of hostages to Gaza via tunnels. This could lead to a catastrophe." However, Hamas militants executed their plan on October 7, launching an attack on southern Israel, with one key difference: the militants did not take hostages to Gaza via tunnels but through the breached border fence.
Israelis continue to reel from the shock of 1,200 fatalities, most of whom were civilians, and the kidnapping of 240 others, including children and the elderly. Israel retaliated with a military campaign that resulted in the deaths of around 24,000 Palestinians. Many, stunned by the massive security failure, demand Netanyahu's resignation.
A survey published by the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute on January 2 indicated that only 15% of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain in office after the war with Hamas, consistent with previous polls showing a sharp decline in his popularity. However, the beleaguered leader, who has promoted himself as the country's security chief for years, shows no signs of wanting to step down. Political analyst Amitz Asael commented, “He is stubborn. It seems he has made a strategic decision to continue in politics despite this. I think it’s a fanciful goal, and his colleagues will tell him sooner or later that his time is up.”
Political change appears unlikely in the short term amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Netanyahu has vowed to continue the war until total victory over Hamas, with senior security officials warning that fighting will persist into 2024. Nevertheless, there are indications within Netanyahu’s government that some are competing for his position. Reports of disputes within the security cabinet have leaked to the Israeli press, with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who has been largely sidelined from key war decisions, harshly criticizing former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a centrist who joined Netanyahu's declared emergency government and war cabinet.
Anti-government protests have rekindled in the streets of Israel over the past few weeks, calling for elections. However, these protests remain relatively limited compared to the mass demonstrations seen in Israel in 2023. Marketing director Noa Weinpress in Tel Aviv stated, “It’s time for him to go. It should have happened on October 8, and since it didn’t, it certainly should happen now, after a hundred days.” Even some of Netanyahu’s staunchest supporters appear to be resigned to the inevitable departure of a leader they still admire. Likud member Yossi Zarouya, who owns a shawarma shop in Ramla, remarked, “I think he will win the war and resign with dignity.” Residents of Ramla had greeted Netanyahu with chants of “King Bibi” 15 months ago at a campaign event where he promised to restore security to the streets.
This sentiment resonates with other supporters wandering through Ramla’s market. Diamond dealer Rafi Kimchi, who was visiting the city from nearby Herzliya, stated, “Netanyahu is a genius. He is not responsible for what happened, but I think his time is over.” Asael, a researcher at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem, noted that Ben Gvir may try to distance himself and leave the government ahead of the election campaign amid frustration from Likud voters.
Conversely, polls indicate a rise in popularity for Gantz, who is perceived as responsible to the public. Several seasoned Likud members have long competed to succeed Netanyahu, including Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Knesset member Yuli Edelstein. The name Yossi Cohen, the former head of Israeli intelligence, has also been mentioned as a potential successor to Netanyahu, with some polls giving his party around 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Cohen stated on a television program on Channel 12 on January 4, "Nothing is excluded. I haven’t decided yet." Asael predicts a "political uproar" once the fighting ends and the possibility of early elections. He stated, "There will be huge and massive demonstrations if politicians try to backtrack."
