Lebanese people have linked their country's economic fate to the completion of the demarcation file and the start of oil extraction. Many believe that the success of the negotiations will have significant repercussions on the Lebanese economic situation. But how valid are these beliefs? How will the maritime border demarcation agreement and the subsequent gas extraction affect Lebanon's economic collapse?
Observers argue that Lebanon's deep economic crisis cannot be saved merely by positive vibes regarding the success of the demarcation file. While such sentiments may have a temporary positive effect on the exchange rate for a few weeks, the collapse of the lira is not due to negative political atmospheres but is rather a result of halting foreign currency inflows into the economy, a massive financial gap, and dwindling foreign currency reserves. Thus, the impact of demarcation will not be long-term, especially as it does not come within a framework of international agreements that Lebanon is negotiating with the United States and the International Monetary Fund, nor concerning the fate of illegal arms.
Consequently, an independent agreement will not have long-term economic implications, particularly after the statement from the International Monetary Fund, which indicated that it would only accept an integrated reform plan alongside the required conditions. This is because, once an agreement is concluded with it, the IMF signals to institutions and nations that Lebanon is seriously implementing reforms and is on the right economic path. The IMF does not give such signals unless Lebanon genuinely follows the correct course.
Regarding the returns from oil extraction, observers assert that "money will not flow in rapidly, and if funds enter the current economic system, their fate will be similar to that of depositors' funds, and we may face a similar crisis later. Therefore, a radical reform of the current economic system is essential."
So, will Lebanon reform its economic system, successfully agree with the International Monetary Fund, and enter a phase of change to escape the economic hell into a different reality?
