The head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, noted that "the major sovereign forces and references are using flimsy constitutional arguments to disrupt any ministerial meeting to address people's issues," adding in a tweet, "Some even challenged the budget to the point of complete manipulation. They all await the external key word that has not arrived yet." But is there really an external key word on the way?
According to informed political sources, the local movement regarding the presidential situation appears to be hesitant at this time, as there is caution and anticipation regarding what external communications might bring forth, particularly in the Lebanese and presidential files. However, there is no confirmation, according to the sources, of any international initiative concerning Lebanon. Even the meetings and conferences that were widely discussed at the end of last year, especially by French President Emmanuel Macron, remain mere talk.
While there have been discussions about a quadripartite meeting involving France, the United States, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to be held in Paris this month, there is no indication yet that this meeting will take place. And if it does convene, there are no signs it will produce a "magic antidote" for the Lebanese presidential crisis, as the forces that will gather in the French capital share almost the same viewpoint on the Lebanese issue and how to address the political-presidential-economic dilemma.
On the other hand, the regional party with the greatest influence in Lebanese developments, namely Iran, which shapes the rhythm and decisions of Hezbollah, is absent from these communications. If the quadripartite meeting occurs, it must eventually open up to Tehran, which holds the card of the presidential elections, to convince it to release the presidential election process. Whether or not Iran is convinced remains to be seen, as the Islamic Republic will naturally demand something in return for liberating the Baabda Palace.
According to the sources, relying on external movement is misplaced. The occurrence of such movement is not guaranteed, and any potential positive outcomes, if they exist, would take a long time, whereas Lebanon, which is collapsing on multiple fronts, cannot afford to wait.
It is worth recalling that the international community demands that the initiative must first and foremost be Lebanese, while it will accompany it and provide the best regional and international conditions to achieve its goals. Remaining passive and waiting for a solution to descend from the outside will mean an ongoing vacancy and the continuation of the economic, financial, and living tragedy, which could become a "security" issue if prolonged, the sources conclude.
