Israeli threats have raised concerns among the Lebanese about the possibility of war. The Lebanese have not forgotten the destruction caused by the July 2006 war, which Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said, "If I had known," was initiated by Hezbollah when its members abducted Israeli soldiers for a prisoner exchange.
Yesterday, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the military to prepare for potential security escalation on the border with Lebanon, threatening that Lebanon and Hezbollah would pay a heavy price if the party targeted Israeli infrastructure. Prime Minister Yair Lapid stated, "We will stop maritime border negotiations if Hezbollah targets the Karish gas field."
So, what are the chances of war between Lebanon and Israel? Retired Brigadier General Nizar Abdul Qader told "Al-Markaziya": "Israel has entered a phase of preparing for elections, and thus the ruling faction cannot be lenient or indifferent; it must show strength. Therefore, it was necessary for both the Defense Minister and the Prime Minister to raise the level of confrontation and threaten potential confrontation with Hezbollah to preempt former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attacks on them for inaction. Thus, they warned the party of the consequences of any military action against Israel or the oil facilities in the Karish field."
Abdul Qader emphasizes that "the ball is now in Hezbollah's court, as this threat is directed at it, monitoring what the party might do and implementing what military leadership promised in the event of any military movement, whether against Israeli territories or oil platforms at sea. The matter now rests on how seriously Hezbollah takes these Israeli threats. If Hezbollah treats them with contempt and indifference, engaging in any movement even if it doesn't lead to losses for Israel, then Hezbollah is testing Israeli threats while simultaneously risking a potential war. In war, we cannot 'gamble and risk,' so Hezbollah must navigate this critical stage with Israeli elections determining who governs Israel and whether the current ruling faction—which issued these threats—remains in power or whether Netanyahu returns to the premiership. Hezbollah must choose to either act wisely or take a gamble.
In reality, I cannot speculate on the intentions of 'the party' because the worst type of strategic analysis is based on reading intentions, which carries a large margin for error and could lead to major disasters due to miscalculation."
In the event of a setback in the delineation file and Israel begins its drilling, could Hezbollah execute its threats? Abdul Qader replies: "Anything is possible, as wars typically occur with calculated rational decisions regarding objectives, implementation, and potential damages, or as a result of one party submitting to the other's will. I do not believe at this stage that clashes or instigating events leading to war with Israel is a justified act. American mediation has not concluded yet and there is an American response. I agree with General Security Director Abbas Ibrahim, who stated that Israeli responses and statements do not concern us because we are negotiating with the American team and waiting for what the Americans will say."
Abdul Qader concludes: "In my opinion, the issue is open to extend beyond the Israeli elections in November, as all these maneuvers are between the ruling faction led by Yair Lapid and opposition leader Netanyahu. After the elections, American mediation might resume to resolve these disputes, which Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Elias Bou Saab described as not exceeding 10 percent of the total deal."
