There is a growing belief among those working on the government file that complications are increasing day by day, despite the risk of a vacancy that could lead to chaos. Insiders noted that communications regarding the formation of the government are "completely stalled, and the past few days have not seen any consultations on this matter." It is also indicated that the designated Prime Minister Najib Mikati "may present a preliminary governmental proposal in the coming days, knowing in advance that it will be rejected by President Michel Aoun." Furthermore, Mikati, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, and the head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt "do not wish to grant Aoun another achievement following the border demarcation agreement at the end of his term."
Conversely, sources within the Free Patriotic Movement rely on the designated Prime Minister's apprehension about the consequences of not forming a government, and what this could lead to in terms of political tensions that may reach the streets. Additionally, the movement is determined not to allow a resigned caretaker government to inherit the powers of the President, and is "prepared to escalate significantly to prevent that, regardless of the outcomes." The sources express disappointment in Hezbollah "being able to pressure Mikati to form a government by threatening to boycott its two ministers from attending caretaker government sessions."
In the sources' view, external pressures also play a role in slowing down the efforts to form the government. This belief is reinforced by what is affirmed by those who meet with foreign and Arab diplomats, particularly the ambassadors of the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia, that the governmental file is completely absent in their discussions in favor of emphasizing the need to elect a President of the Republic. The sources do not rule out that the external indifference toward the lack of a government formation is a tactic to push for a rapid election of a President following the vacancy, especially if the escalation leads to tensions that make electing a President a necessity for everyone. In this context, the name of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun emerges as a candidate whose election would require street tensions as a means to position him as a "settlement candidate" capable of stabilizing the situation, considering that the next three months will be "decisive and dangerous."
