The deliberate sabotage by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of all negotiation paths regarding a ceasefire and ending hostilities in Gaza clearly indicates his mindset, which sees no investment beyond war and its prolongation. During the Cairo negotiations, Israeli media revealed that Netanyahu spoke to the press as a "senior source" about Israel's insistence on continuing its military operations in Rafah, irrespective of reaching an agreement. This stance aims to provoke Hamas, which is rigid in its conditions for guarantees that a ceasefire and the release of hostages will lead to a permanent halt in fire, thus preventing Israel from resuming combat, as reported by "Al-Mudun".
Netanyahu’s Agenda
The Israeli media's revelation of Netanyahu’s identity as the source of the leak reflects the extent of issues within Israel and the struggle over leaks. Other Israeli media responded by citing military officials indicating that the war is nearing an end, and a deal must be struck, as the priority is the release of the hostages. This conflicting information highlights the divergence of views between the Prime Minister and military officials. Moreover, reports from Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested he urged the Prime Minister during a war cabinet meeting to accept the deal offered in the Egyptian proposal. This narrative is not separate from mutual accusations between the two sides regarding who bears responsibility for the failures. All this indicates preemptive attempts for a post-war phase, entering an era of trials, investigations, and accountability that undoubtedly Netanyahu wants to avoid.
It has become clear that stopping the war is not on Netanyahu's agenda. This paves the way for further disputes within Israel and escalates tensions with the United States, especially with the Joe Biden administration, which emphasizes the urgency of finalizing a deal to secure the release of the seven American hostages held by Hamas. This reflects a confrontation between the U.S. administration and Netanyahu, who sees no option but to prolong the war regardless of international and regional efforts. Consequently, he evokes "the Holocaust" to galvanize Jewish support for his continued military actions.
The Fear for Lebanon
Netanyahu has reached an advanced stage of recklessness, particularly since some of his decisions are based on his personal impressions and emotions, considering his own future. It is unclear how much American pressure can influence him to refrain from continuing the war or to form a coalition that may lead to the collapse of his government and early elections or to establish a coalition that provides him a safety net, distancing him from the need for figures like Ben Gvir and Smotrich, while also ensuring political continuity in power amid conditions for a ceasefire. Without that, he is likely to persist in his madness, capable of igniting the entire region, especially as he has resurfaced the notion of confronting Iran or engaging on multiple fronts.
If Netanyahu succeeds in thwarting all international and regional efforts to achieve a ceasefire and continues the war, imposing a fait accompli on the world, then there will be a heightened fear for Lebanon. We should anticipate a forthcoming phase of Israeli maneuvering in any negotiations related to the situation on the Lebanese front. If Netanyahu nullifies all attempts to stop the war in Gaza, he will be prepared to abort any efforts to de-escalate the military situation with Lebanon or establish any diplomatic or political agreement. Israeli media leaks from officials indicate that there is no alternative to a major military confrontation that would reshape military balances at the Lebanese border.
A Lesson from 1982
In his book on the history of U.S.-Lebanese relations, former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon David Hale recalls Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. He notes that at the time, the United States was not supportive of the invasion and reaching Beirut. The military operation declared by Sharon was supposed to reach the "first line" (north of Sidon), but he imposed a fait accompli by reaching Beirut amid American opposition.
In the event of failed attempts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, we must be even more cautious in Lebanon concerning further possibilities of Israeli escalation and involvement in a war or combat days with Hezbollah. This necessitates considering Netanyahu's remarks about being ready to fight on multiple fronts, even if alone, as well as statements from Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz during the visit of French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné to Tel Aviv, where he claimed that Israel would launch a military operation in southern Lebanon and seek to occupy large parts of it if Hezbollah does not withdraw, according to "Al-Mudun."
