The President of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gibran Basil, continues to send his direct and subtle messages in various directions that might free him from presidential constraints, hoping that what was miraculous and has become a reality for six years might repeat itself, and that the forbidden becomes permissible, turning dreams into reality. Before President Michel Aoun assumed the presidency in 2016, no Lebanese expected or even imagined that a settlement similar to that reached between Rabieh and Maarab, then between Rabieh and House of the Center, could come to fruition. However, in the world of politics, nothing is impossible, and white can turn black in an instant. This is a situation that Basil likely bets on, aided by several factors, the most important of which may be the vacuum, in addition to the signing of the demarcation agreement, in which he had a significant share thanks to President Aoun, who specifically named him. Perhaps the concessions offered would lift the US sanctions against him and pave the way for his presidency.
However, in light of these concerns expressed by many Lebanese, the American administration has recently sent a message to Lebanese-American groups and Lebanese-American citizens stating: “Regarding the maritime demarcation deal, the White House emphasized the importance of Lebanese and Lebanese-Americans knowing the following:
1. The maritime demarcation is a well-considered agreement that benefits all parties.
2. There is no deal or concessions to Hezbollah or Gibran Basil. The administration does not have the authority to make any deals. Basil must go through the US federal court to remove himself from the sanctions list.
3. There will be no financial benefits for politicians or those establishing companies. We and Total are taking the necessary measures to ensure that sovereign trust funds benefit the Lebanese people only! No dollars for politicians!”
Thus, according to the White House, facilitating the demarcation does not involve lifting sanctions on Basil; therefore, the US-Iran agreement, if it occurs – which is unlikely – will not offer gifts to the head of the movement, which might have been acceptable years ago but is no longer the case today.
Consequently, the logical question remains: what does Basil rely on? Is it a change in the internal scene, which is why he continues to court Hezbollah? His tweet last night was striking when he wrote on his personal Twitter account: “The demarcation and extraction agreement accomplished by Lebanon is a model or example of how a defense strategy should be, where the state is the primary reference, and the resistance is a supporting and committed element to the state’s policy and its decisions. Such a project of resistance does not contradict the state project or its building; rather, it reinforces it.”
According to political sources in the opposition speaking to "Al-Markazia," through his tweet, Basil sent a reassuring message to the party, guaranteeing that if he were elected, he, like his uncle, would not touch its illegal weapons and would not implement Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of militias. Instead, he would proceed in legalizing its arms alongside the state through a defensive strategy tailored to himself, ignoring the existence of the Lebanese Army and all security agencies capable of protecting Lebanon without the need for a “supporting element” or armed individuals backing the state-building project. The Israeli threat has diminished after the demarcation, as acknowledged by all parties involved, and there cannot be a real state with two armies and two weapons, regardless of who holds the second weapon.
From the party to Washington, Basil defined for himself a connecting role, capable of exerting influence over the Dahiya in any potential developments regarding the demarcation line after the signing. This equation of Basil's particularly targets the Taif Agreement at a time when some are pushing towards attempting to alter it by obstructing its continued implementation. According to sources, such moves will not prove useful in removing the barriers to his arrival at Baabda. Lending support to Hezbollah will not open palace doors for him, as the era of old has shifted. The parliamentary majority that was in the hands of the party no longer exists, and any political party will not risk repeating the National Free Movement’s bitter experience in the presidency, which has devastated Lebanon. No settlement, no matter how lofty its negotiators are, will accommodate it. The president will only be one who is agreed upon by the majority, and there is no majority for Basil, the sources conclude.
