Three strategic files are what President Michel Aoun aims to conclude his term with. For him, these files turn all other internal obligations, such as government formation, into mere details. This week, Aoun will be signing an agreement regarding the demarcation of the southern maritime borders. He will receive a Cypriot delegation to discuss the maritime borders between Lebanon and Cyprus. He will also initiate the necessary communications and is set to send Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab next week to Damascus at the helm of a delegation to discuss the demarcation of the northern maritime borders as well.
Aoun insists on signing
Next Tuesday, American mediator Amos Hochstein will arrive in Beirut carrying the official American agreement text for the border demarcation. According to available information, there is a Lebanese-Israeli urgency to sign before the end of the month. President Michel Aoun insists on signing one of the annexes to the demarcation agreement; he will not sign all the pages that the delegation representing Lebanon will sign. However, alongside the agreement details, there will be a special annex pertaining to the Lebanese side, which will accompany the message that will be deposited with the United Nations—on this annex, Michel Aoun will place his signature. The selection of the delegation representing Lebanon is also awaited; will it be limited to military representatives, or will there be a civilian figure as the Americans hope?
Celebration in Baabda?
According to informed sources, Aoun tried to hold a sort of celebration at the Baabda Palace following the achievement of the demarcation agreement and its signing. Additional information indicates that Aoun wanted to invite Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati to the Baabda Palace, along with other figures who contributed to reaching the agreement, to hold a meeting and sign the first annex of the agreement. However, Berri and Mikati have so far refused the invitation, firstly due to Aoun's attempt to monopolize the achievement, and secondly because the president's signature would imply that the agreement is a treaty with the Israeli enemy, which should have been limited to a technical signature in Naqoura. If given an official nature, it would mean that the border agreement has become a "treaty" with the enemy, which must be discussed in Parliament, as many opposing deputies to the agreement have demanded.
Determining the Status of Shebaa Farms
From demarcation in the south to that in the north, Aoun insists on concluding his term by placing the negotiations regarding maritime border demarcation with Syria on track, establishing everything needed. He aims to benefit from his relationship with the Syrian regime, which may grant him certain stances on the positivity and openness towards demarcation, even if it takes a long time to achieve the desired results. This may push Aoun to expand channels of communication and coordination with Damascus in the final week of his term. However, alongside the maritime borders, a fundamental issue regarding the determination of the status of Shebaa Farms will emerge, and whether Aoun will manage to obtain a document from Damascus proving the Lebanese identity of the farms.
Regarding the maritime border demarcation between Lebanon and Syria, it is essential to monitor the Russian influence, especially since Moscow had previously committed to sponsoring any negotiations to reach an agreement. This would represent a kind of Russian restoration of its role in Lebanon's oil sector following Novatek’s exit from the exploration consortium.
Correcting the Mistake with Cyprus
Lebanon is also expecting a Cypriot delegation to discuss the maritime border demarcation between the two countries. It is noteworthy that Lebanon was the first to demarcate borders with Cyprus through negotiations that began in 2007 and continued until 2009. The borders were demarcated, but Cyprus exceeded its understanding with Lebanon in 2011, opting to demarcate its borders with Israel. The agreement between Lebanon and Cyprus stipulated that Cyprus could not finalize the demarcation with Israel without understanding with Lebanon; however, the opposite occurred, and currently, this error needs to be corrected.
