The honeymoon between Beirut and Rabieh was short-lived; what was written before the presidency did not see the light of dawn in Baabda Palace. Thus, President Saad Hariri paid the highest price in his political life, leading to the near political retirement of President Michel Aoun, with Hariri boycotting the parliamentary elections in 2022 and contenting himself with watching events in Beirut from Abu Dhabi. Hariri was a crucial support for Aoun, providing him with the necessary Sunni constitutional cover as President, along with the dream of restoring the Maronite-Sunni duo which displayed its fragility and ultimately collapsed.
In a record time in the history of government formation after 2005, Hariri managed to form the first government of Aoun's presidency in just 46 days. After being tasked by Aoun on November 3, 2016, the government was formed on December 18 of the same year. November 4, 2017, marked a difficult day in Hariri's and Lebanon's history, as he announced his resignation from the government in a surprising televised speech from Riyadh, after which communication with him was cut off, leading to the understanding that the Lebanese Prime Minister was in an abnormal situation. Consequently, Aoun and Gebran Bassil lent Hariri a significant political stance, following intense international communications they led, particularly with European capitals, alongside intervention from French President Emmanuel Macron to facilitate Hariri's return to Beirut. This government later resigned following the parliamentary elections in May 2018.
"My vote is for my friend Gebran," was how Hariri approached the 2018 elections, as he collaborated on many lists with the Free Patriotic Movement, and the bond of friendship had not yet severed. In fact, in some areas, he distanced himself from his allies, the Lebanese Forces and the Progressive Socialist Party, in favor of his alliance with the "Movement." However, the period before the 2018 elections was not the same as after; while he formed his first government in 46 days, it took him 253 days from his assignment on May 24, 2018, to form this new government. During this assignment period, disputes and obstacles dominated the scene.
The relationship began to visibly deteriorate between Hariri, Aoun, and Bassil in the summer of 2019, ultimately culminating in the explosion on the eve of October 17 amidst the October Revolution, leading to Hariri's individual decision to resign on October 29, breaking the relationship entirely with the presidency. Afterward, Hariri could not return to power, as Bassil always stood against him on the premise that "either I and Saad, or neither." At that time, Hariri began to insist on forming a technocratic government, yet, according to the opposing team, the criteria did not apply to him, resulting in his failure to form a government in 2021 despite having offered himself for the role in a television interview during the "Sar el Wakt" program on MTV. The doors of the presidential palace were never accommodating for him, leading to his withdrawal.
The conflict between Hariri, Aoun, and Bassil took on a personal nature, with his failure to form this government acting as a Maronite divorce between the two parties. This brought Hariri to his final decision not to participate in the 2022 elections and to distance himself from political work, at least until Aoun's presidency ended.
In the last week of Aoun's presidency, the question arises: Will Hariri return to Lebanon and resume his political life after November 1? Or will the Maronite divorce extend to his presence in Lebanese political life entirely?
