The caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati will not succumb to the intimidation and extortion campaigns being waged by the President of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gibran Bassil. Bassil has gone far in his threats, stating that they will go beyond constitutional and social chaos unless their conditions are met and a government is formed that aligns with the political heir of President Michel Aoun, who, according to a prominent political source, is inactive and seems to have relinquished his constitutional powers for the benefit of his son-in-law. This directly contradicts his call to be a partner in forming the government.
The political source questions why Aoun has withdrawn from the consultations regarding the formation of the government, leaving Bassil to negotiate on his behalf. The source wonders if it is reasonable for Bassil to act as a shadow president, and why Aoun would delegate the negotiations to Bassil, who benefits from the pressure exerted by his ally, "Hezbollah," on the designated president to form the government. This is in contrast to Speaker Nabih Berri's understanding of Mikati's stance, which is based on avoiding any disruption of the political balance within the current government led by Bassil, who is demanding the replacement of most ministers loyal to Aoun with hardline ministers from the "Free Patriotic Movement" who owe him total loyalty.
The same source asserts that Bassil's threats to overturn the table will not hold any weight, not only because he has little to lose but also because they reflect his confusion and lack of a clear political vision. Otherwise, why does he flip-flop on his conditions, replacing them with nearly impossible demands, given his awareness that Mikati will not agree to change the political orientation of the government by introducing heavy-weight partisan ministers into a government that does not have political party representation?
The source believes that Mikati is not inclined to replace the caretaker government with an identical government, especially since Bassil is not willing to grant confidence to the government unless his demands for the appointment of partisan ministers are met. Mikati must commit to dismissing the Governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh, promoting officers who graduated from the military academy in 1994 known as General Michel Aoun's batch, and issuing a batch of appointments to ensure the continuity of Aoun's legacy after the end of his presidential term on October 31. Additionally, he must sign with the interior minister on Aoun's decree granting Lebanese citizenship to many holders of Arab and foreign nationalities.
The same source doubts that Mikati and Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi would agree to sign a decree that would not be enforceable without their signatures, questioning whether this decree aligns with the naturalization decree signed by Aoun in 2018, which did not allow public security to scrutinize the names of beneficiaries, some of whom hold Palestinian and Syrian nationalities.
The source also questions why the State Shura Council refrained from examining a review petition submitted by several political entities arguing that granting citizenship to Palestinian figures contradicts the preamble of the Constitution, which rejects the resettlement of Palestinians.
It seems that Bassil is still struggling because he does not know what he wants except to impose his dominance on the government by securing a blocking third. Mikati does not tend to agree to his conditions, and the solution lies in positively engaging with the offer made by Aoun, who promised to study it and then return to demand an expansion of the government by adding six political ministers, allowing him to tighten his control over it.
The source states that communication has ceased between Mikati and Aoun, who has left matters to Bassil in hopes of enabling him to impose his conditions, emboldened by the excess power that Hezbollah possesses, which he insists on considering rather than intervening to soften his position. The party is pressing for the formation of a new government or a lifting of the current one, claiming there is a need to form it to manage the vacancy in the presidency amid the lack of international pressure to ensure timely presidential elections or to postpone them briefly, as long as it is not prolonged since the country can no longer withstand being dragged into a cycle of chaos that might lead it to the unknown.
The same source confirms that Bassil is drawing strength from Hezbollah's power, which he uses to divert attention from his lack of readiness for reasons related to electing a president on time. The source asserts that Bassil's threats will have no political effect because they remain mere sound bombs, especially since he knows well that playing with civil peace would backfire on him, leading to a confrontation with security forces, primarily the military.
The source highlights that Bassil's insistence on raising his political ceilings by introducing a series of conditions faces resistance not just from Mikati but also from major political forces, particularly those opposing him in the Christian street. Bassil has not learned from the disasters that have befallen the country, leading it toward collapse during Aoun's presidency, and thus behaves as though the "strong era" still holds initiative. Consequently, the mediation efforts being carried out by General Abbas Ibrahim to overcome the obstacles hindering the rescuing of the government remain in a vicious cycle as long as Hezbollah refuses to intervene with Bassil to withdraw his conditions and pressures to revive the government at any cost, while Mikati refuses to recognize that he is expected to accommodate his ally, which he rejects as he is not inclined to lead a government of two classes: one that he personally manages and another that is subject to Bassil's directives and whims. As for Bassil's claim to be targeting Mikati by asserting that he wants to control the government and usurp the powers of the president, this claim, according to the political source, is unfounded as long as Aoun is distancing himself from the negotiations and allowing his son-in-law the freedom of decision.
