Even if the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Gebran Bassil, denied during his recent media appearance his candidacy for the presidential elections, at the same time, he did not completely close the door on this possibility, leaving a small window open for a coup scenario that might place him in the Maronite contest. He knows well that obtaining the title of presidential candidate comes with many obstacles, the most prominent of which are international vetoes. Although he hinted that lines with the United States may no longer be entirely closed off to him, he tried to send a positive message toward Saudi Arabia by praising the behavior of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regarding the economic revival. However, the internal vetoes are no less resistant and severe, making his candidacy seem like a fantasy.
Indeed, "Hezbollah" appears to be the only remaining ally of the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," as rivalries have stripped him of all previous understandings. Thus, he needs divine intervention to make him an acceptable or negotiating candidate, and light-years to become seriously considered. This means that hinting at the possibility of jumping into the candidate arena is merely a card he seeks to exploit.
Conversely, Bassil revealed many details during this interview, or rather brought them to clear and unmistakable light, most notably the solid position of "Hezbollah" along with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri regarding their candidate, confirming his identity: the head of the "Maronite Movement" Sleiman Franjieh. This relationship is linked to the criterion defined by "the party" for the identity of the successor to President Michel Aoun in the presidency, which is the protection of "the Resistance," thus ruling out all nominations in this context.
This leads to the rejection of the candidacy of Army Commander Joseph Aoun, as he is classified under moderate or independent nominations, which no longer meets the specifications of the Shiite duo, or "Hezbollah" in a specific form. Moreover, the context presented by the electoral sessions that have been held so far, and are expected to continue next Thursday, shows that there is a significant difficulty in surpassing MP Michel Moawad's "score" achieved. This fate might resemble that of any similar candidacy.
Accordingly, informed sources say that "Hezbollah's" decision to shift from a state of total silence to revealing their candidate indicates a belief within "the party" that raising Sleiman Franjieh's stock, should Bassil become convinced of the necessity to negotiate with him, will make the head of the "Maronite Movement" a strong competitor, especially since the step to negotiate with "the Free Patriotic Movement" would encourage other parties to take a similar step, including head of the "Progressive Socialist Party" Walid Jumblatt, who does not oppose the nomination of the Zgharta star, and a considerable number of Sunni MPs close to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. This could render Sleiman Franjieh's candidacy a reality that might stir the stagnant waters, particularly since he insists that the international atmosphere is not opposed to his ascent, as is the position of the Maronite Patriarchate.
Based on this scenario, the nominations of Gebran Bassil, if they occur, and Sleiman Franjieh are the most serious. As long as the former is surrounded by a series of obstacles, Franjieh's candidacy appears to be the most realistic. Thus, as the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" mentioned in his interview, he has a personal interest in nominating Franjieh (and he did not mention this equation lightly), even if he politically rejects him. The likelihood of an understanding between them becomes an anticipated step, sooner or later... unless Bassil insists on nominating a third figure to agree upon, as he suggested in his comments.
However, this scenario faces a fundamental dilemma, namely the criterion set by "Hezbollah," which is "the protection of the resistance," because this criterion reduces the pool of nominations to its maximum limits, unless, for example, he decides to make Wiam Wahhab a Maronite to align his nomination with the "party's" criterion. Consequently, Bassil is talking about a third option that does not actually exist, as insiders on this path suggest.
It is true that Bassil justified his lack of conviction in nominating Franjieh by stating he is a product of the system he refuses to revive, but Bassil himself previously stitched together a presidential understanding with one of the system's key components to ensure Michel Aoun's election as president, namely Saad Hariri.
Thus, observers say that Bassil faces one of two choices: either to quickly reach an understanding with Franjieh to form a snowball effect capable of enforcing a candidate from this axis, or to waste more time that might not change the equation and then return to negotiate with him.
