Perhaps, it would not be in the interest of any Arab or regional party to break the head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, in the presidential elections and remove him from the race in favor of another president, even if that person is Army Commander Joseph Aoun. The issue can be summarized as Frangieh will be the bridge that everyone is looking for to return "Lebanese-Syrian-Arab" relations to the path of resolving disputes in all its internal and Arab dimensions, specifically in very sensitive files in Yemen and Syria.
No group here is talking about an international bargain of this magnitude, but at least this "agreement-compromise" led by France will mark the beginning of an unannounced rapprochement among them on all internal and external issues. This means that any settlement will not happen without an internal bargain between the presidency and the government and an external bargain between the Lebanese settlement and the shared outstanding regional issues.
In summary, despite growing talk about a French direction to bring the presidential election sessions at the beginning of the next year into a competitive phase between the only two candidates for the presidency, namely Sleiman Frangieh and Army Commander Joseph Aoun, this will naturally not produce a president but rather put this file on "simmering," as they say, to begin a phase of serious bargaining and negotiations in all its presidential, governmental, and even appointments in security and economic positions.
There is a piece of information here that cannot be overlooked and is being discussed on a narrow scale regarding a French proposal to make constitutional amendments regarding first-class appointments and give the governorship of the Central Bank of Lebanon to the Shiites in exchange for supporting Joseph Aoun for the presidency and a non-provocative Sunni figure for the premiership, who is not directly associated with Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance has now become a known share of the Shiite duo, in addition to the Energy Ministry and the presidency of the sovereign fund for oil and gas.
According to sources following the presidential file and closely connected with the French, there is a tendency to elect Frangieh as president due to his relationship with Hezbollah and his inability to make neutral decisions or go against the party’s policy in Lebanon and the region.
Since before the end of President Michel Aoun's term, Riyadh made a decisive decision to return to the Lebanese arena. As a result of this decision, Riyadh will not accept any Lebanese settlement "presidential - governmental - economic - security" without its approval. This complicates matters for the French, who have recently changed their dialogue strategy from attempting to promote Frangieh to promoting Joseph Aoun within a settlement that reassures Hezbollah, or going toward an alternative plan by electing a neutral or technocratic figure. Here, there is renewed discussion of Jihad Azour as a primary option or Ziad Baroud as an alternative.
