Between the US-sanctioned Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, accused of committing human rights violations and listed on the blacklist that prohibits any dealings with him, and the American immunity granted to other regional rulers from judicial persecution due to their crimes, we sense that US sanctions and pending cases may not deter some aspiring presidential candidates from achieving their goals.
The US sanctions on Raisi have not halted the ongoing secret US-Iranian talks in various forms, whether related to the Iranian nuclear file or otherwise. Moreover, granting immunity to a ruler from prosecution for a crime naturally paves the way for governance but does not confirm that this file will be entirely withdrawn from circulation in the future, especially if it serves an American interest in smoothing the path for a leader, from whom the United States may "dig up" any part of their past as needed, in accordance with interests and at the appropriate time, even decades later.
Starting from the above, there is no reason why X or Y in Lebanon cannot be president, despite being subject to US sanctions. The recent developments in France may indicate a lack of shared American-European rejection to engage with certain sanctioned individuals possibly inside Baabda Palace in the next six years.
We will not discuss the concessions that Washington, Paris, and the European Union might seek as a result of this, nor the "major" and "huge commitments" they may obtain from this sanctioned individual or that. What matters more to us is that this movement remains within the framework of ongoing US-European-Iranian coordination on most regional and international files, including Lebanon.
A source informed about French and European affairs noted that "French President Emmanuel Macron received Iranian activists about a week ago, to which the Iranians responded by detaining seven French citizens in Iran. However, these developments did not affect the continuous French-Iranian coordination, which will never stop, given the many shared interests between the two countries."
He pointed out in a discussion with "Akhbar Al-Yawm" agency that "France is working in favor of Iran in the Middle East and Lebanon, more than it did in the past. The visit of (Head of the National Movement, MP Gebran) Bassil to France would not have taken place if it were not for Paris's major interest in our region, which it shares with Iran and everything related to it, and not with others in the Middle East."
The source confirmed that "the West has no objection to electing the president that Iran wants in Lebanon, who may not necessarily be Gebran Bassil." He added, "Iran's secret candidate for the presidency in Lebanon is the most reputable figure within the country, from all Lebanese factions, despite everyone's knowledge that he works for Tehran and visits the United States, France, and European countries, defending the team of illegal arms."
He concluded: "Recent global events have created favorable conditions for the revival of Iranian politics across the Middle East significantly. No one will stop Iran from doing what it wants in Lebanon, to the extent that it can now influence it more than before."
