Lebanon

How Will the International Community Intervene After the New Year?

How Will the International Community Intervene After the New Year?

Deputy Wadah Sadaq stated in an interview with "Akhbar Al-Yawm" agency that there are about 50 MPs convinced to vote for MP Michel Moawad. However, the opposing team believes that if the quorum is achieved, there may be around 15 MPs (among change-makers and the Moderation Bloc) ready to switch sides if an actual presidential battle occurs. In response to a question, Sadaq pointed out that there might be an opportunity to elect a president even if there isn't full consensus among everyone, but there is agreement on a significant portion of the key issues. This is why the opposing team always resorts to disrupting the quorum, in addition to losing consensus within their ranks.

Sadaq expressed astonishment at the opposing team's call for consensus without proposing any names, stating that to consult and reach consensus, there must be another candidate on the table. He emphasized that consensus cannot be achieved by sticking to one candidate alone, as this would mean imposition and authoritarianism. He added that when this team proposes a name, it indicates they are ready to seriously discuss the presidential entitlement; however, to date, this team has not decided to elect a president at this stage, and the disagreements among its components have widened, particularly after MP Gebran Bassil's statements from Paris, which contained a lot of arrogance.

Sadaq highlighted that Bassil currently represents a bloc of 17 MPs (with the Tashnaq party outside the current movement and MP Mohammed Yahya being independent), and in fact, some voices have left his bloc. Notably, Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab voted yesterday for former Minister Ziad Baroud, and it is clear that at least five or six MPs are dissatisfied with Bassil's performance, questioning by what right Bassil speaks about constitutional legitimacy.

In this context, Sadaq mentioned that the Christian weight lies within the blocs voting for MP Moawad, rendering the Free Patriotic Movement unable to obstruct like it used to by drawing strength from the presidential palace; instead, it currently draws its sole power from Hezbollah, which has given it the key to obstruction.

Emphasizing that the president should be a guarantee for the country and not for one team, Sadaq stated that Hezbollah has given arrogance to someone with no responsibility for the country's or the Lebanese people's interest, but rather only presents personal interests.

In response to a question about foreign movements, particularly the French, and the possibility of translating this into local action, Sadaq answered: At least no one can impose any option on the 13 change-making MPs (even though I am not among them, we fought battles together and I know their orientations). However, it is evident that there are blocs in the council that the international community or countries concerned with the Lebanese file can influence, albeit in varying degrees, starting from Hezbollah's external ties to Bassil’s attempts to request French intervention in some settlement, but this attempt might not succeed, especially since Bassil's meetings in Paris were at a low level, as he holds no title or power that would allow him to secure three key positions in the country in exchange for accepting a presidential candidate.

Furthermore, Sadaq continued, the next president should not offer concessions, especially since the new term should start with reformative steps, thus any president will not relinquish positions and give them to others, which would undermine any mandate from its inception.

Sadaq concluded by stating that the international community is tired of Lebanon, as despite what the country has suffered in recent years, the Lebanese officials do not possess the minimum level of responsibility.

What is the way forward to break the stalemate? Sadaq revealed: If we do not reach an internal solution by the New Year, the international community will intervene in an attempt to pressure for Army Commander Joseph Aoun to become president.

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