The President of the "Independence" Movement, MP Michel Maawad, remains steadfast in his presidential candidacy under national and demand-driven titles, supported by the "sovereign team" and some independent and change-oriented MPs. In contrast, the March 8 coalition is struggling to agree on a single candidate. While the head of the "Marada" Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, has stated in media appearances that he will not allow the ongoing dispute between him and MP Gebran Bassil, head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," to deprive his political group of bringing a president to Baabda, Bassil has a different perspective.
Bassil tends to prioritize personal interest or the preservation of rights within the quota system, as he "trades" as he pleases and seeks to maximize gains from his alliance with "Hezbollah." Conversely, Franjieh places the interests of the "resistance axis" above his personal interests and takes pride in his good relationship with Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
While the "Free Patriotic Movement" boasts about imposing the issue of constitutional representation for Christians, particularly regarding the presidential election, Maawad has outperformed both Franjieh and Bassil combined by securing the highest number of Christian MP votes in Parliament. According to "Nidaa al-Watan," the announcement by the "Progress" Party, which includes two MPs—Mark Daw and Najat Saliba—voting for Maawad has tilted the Christian side in his favor, especially since all parties have acknowledged the election results.
Specifically, Maawad has a Christian parliamentary support base consisting of: the "Strong Republic Bloc" with 19 MPs, the Kataeb bloc with 4 MPs, the "Independence Movement" with 2 MPs, and individual Christian MPs including Neemat Afram, Jamil Aboud, Jean Talouzian, Raji Saad, Najat Saliba, Ghassan Skaff, and Michel Daher. Additionally, MP Saji Atiyeh announced that some MPs from the "National Moderation Bloc" voted for Maawad, with increasing speculation about change-oriented MP Elias Jaradah's likelihood of supporting him.
It is noteworthy that the parliamentary council is divided equally between 64 Christian MPs and 64 Muslim MPs; therefore, Maawad has surpassed the threshold of half the Christian MPs by receiving 33 Christian parliamentary votes. Even if Bassil and Franjieh agree on a candidate, they will not garner that number of Christian parliamentary votes, as there are opposing Christian MPs who did not vote for Maawad and will certainly not support Bassil, Franjieh, or any of their candidates, such as MPs Paula Yacoubian, Melhem Khalaf, and Michel Douaihy.
These numbers reveal an aspect of the crisis faced by the Christian faction allied with "Hezbollah." Franjieh cannot reach Baabda without Bassil's support, and if he does, he would be a president without Christian backing, potentially repeating the experience of President Emil Lahoud, who was considered an adversary by the Christian majority.
If Bassil's bloc is sufficient to provide Christian cover for any candidate, he is experiencing a national crisis, as Franjieh lacks broad Christian representation but maintains relationships with other sects, while Bassil's ties are limited to "Hezbollah," having failed to build bridges with other Christian and national components.
Maawad surpassed Bassil and Franjieh in the size of Christian support and also in his audacity to run despite low chances, clearly demonstrating that the Christian public is discontent with Bassil and Franjieh's disputes while showing respect for Maawad's approach and adherence to democratic principles. He has reportedly received the blessing of Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, who met with Maawad days ago, supporting his presidential candidacy and praising his significant Christian backing while seeking national solidarity around his candidacy. In contrast, the patriarch believes the actions of the other Christian faction will lead to more vacuum, obstruction, and paralysis of institutions, undermining the state and the presidency.
