The commemoration of the martyrdom of President Rafik Hariri this year resembles the general atmosphere surrounding the event last year. Observing the circumstances in the "temporal glass" two weeks prior reveals scenes of crowds in front of the tomb in Martyrs' Square accompanying the presence of President Saad Hariri. It is clear that the circumstances will revisit the events of February 14, 2022, with one notable difference: this participation carries additional symbolism as it coincides with the first anniversary of the "Future" Movement Leader's suspension of his political activities.
Reflecting back to February 14, 2005, just minutes after Rafik Hariri left the café on Place de l'Étoile, a massive explosion occurred as the convoy approached the San George Hotel, leaving a crater with 18 years of destruction in Lebanon. As the depth of despair increases amid the current economic, social, and political conditions, many questions arose in political discussions over the past few days concerning the "Future" Movement's assessment of the phase and the data surrounding Hariri's presence in Beirut. What about the choice to withdraw and the possibility of its continuation and implications?
First, information from "An-Nahar" indicates, according to official sources, that Hariri’s presence on February 14 will include expected meetings with figures from the "Future" Movement who continue their organizational and social tasks. This includes meetings with party leaders, former MPs, and ministers who decided not to participate in the parliamentary elections. The "Center House" will witness a flow of individuals committed to Hariri's approach, whom the concerned parties prefer to call "the family of the house," with the exception of those who disagreed with him and chose to run for elections, and who are now considered by the "Future" evaluators to be outside the house and the movement.
Second, the event will not feature speeches or written statements or political positions. Instead, part of the meetings will take on an organizational nature, with the possibility of notable visits from various figures or leaders to "Center House" to meet President Hariri. However, it is confirmed that the meetings will not include political dimensions or address local political issues, which are absent from Hariri's agenda as he distances himself from political matters. It is worth noting the absence of deliberations between Hariri and the political forces since he suspended his political work and completely distanced himself from any political communication.
Third, there are no logistical preparations for public attendance at the February 14 commemoration this year, similar to last year which saw spontaneous engagement from "Future" supporters. The "Blue Movement" does not see itself facing a test of populism or popularity as it highlights the positive indicators resulting from the parliamentary elections, reflecting a solidification of Hariri’s leadership despite the decision to withdraw from elections. The "Future" Movement views the commemoration of President Rafik Hariri's martyrdom from a high vantage point, accessing the current state of the country and the repercussions of his assassination as Lebanon faces tumultuous challenges. The "Future" Movement is confident in the indicators that will manifest at the tomb on February 14, affirming a "clear response" reflective of Hariri’s legacy as a deeply rooted phenomenon that feels stronger outside of power, liberating itself from the burdens of political games and settlements.
Fourth, President Saad Hariri's presence in Lebanon comes within the context of commemorating a national occasion amid confirmed circumstances maintaining his decision to suspend his political work, due to the lack of changes in the conditions that prompted this choice, worsened by increasing indicators such as the deteriorating economic crisis, compounded political stalemate including the election of a new president, and the intensification of sectarianism and obstruction of truth regarding the Beirut Port explosion, for which Hariri has called for an international investigation. This collective image reminds "Future" cadres of the key phrase Hariri emphasized in his electoral abstention speech about the absence of any positive opportunities to save Lebanon amidst local chaos, Iranian intervention, sectarian rhetoric, and the state's degradation.
Those close to Hariri do not discern encouraging changes for resuming political life amid the ongoing obstruction of reform provisions linked to the "Cedar" conference and the action plan he presented before resigning from the government, noting the lack of seriousness in implementing these plans by various governmental factions.
All these indicators do not suggest that Lebanon is nearing an exit from the tunnel it entered due to the consequences of the tragic day on February 14, 2005, as those close to Hariri are experiencing increasingly bleak atmospheres looming over Lebanon, leading to a long-term decision to withdraw in expression of recurring disappointments that demanded non-continuation even if it entrenches a present vacuum. Observers of Hariri's perspective believe he remains steadfast in this conviction, aligning with himself rather than continuing to bleed and sink into the mire of the Lebanese political reality without results or solutions due to the lack of cooperation characterizing the practices of those obstructing any rescue effort.
