Despite all the commotion surrounding the advanced battle tanks that Ukraine acquired from the West last week, they will not serve as the ultimate solution that allows Kyiv to win the war. Instead, the U.S. military will again attempt to reshape an army in its image to give Ukraine the best chance of penetrating Russian defenses. To achieve this, the United States and its allies will not only need to provide the tanks, armored vehicles, and advanced munitions recently promised but also to expand what was once a "tailored training program" to teach the Ukrainian army how to use all the new equipment together. This will constitute an extremely intensive course in what the U.S. military calls "joint all-domain operations," which takes months, if not years, for U.S. units to master.
Decisions regarding new military aid represent a delicate balancing act for the White House and NATO: while they want to equip Kyiv with new capabilities capable of breaking the current stalemate on the battlefield, they also do not wish to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin into escalating the conflict into a broader war. As satellite images revealed the Russians building primary and secondary lines of defensive trenches along the front lines, U.S. government analysts began predicting a potentially deadly stalemate resulting from 2023. Concerned that the frozen conflict benefits Russia, the U.S. and its allies have engaged in more serious discussions in recent weeks to shift the battle in Ukraine's favor. Victoria Nuland, a senior U.S. State Department official, stated to the Senate on Thursday: "We want to put them in the best possible position so they can stay on a map that is more useful for their long-term future, with Putin feeling a strategic failure."
Much of the first year of the conflict involved an exchange of artillery fire between Russia and Ukraine against each other's positions, but there were some battlefield operations involving tanks. Ukraine used them in its counteroffensive outside Kharkiv, its largest success, but some of the more critical weapons were fast-moving armored combat vehicles. However, in the next phase of the war, the Ukrainian army will target Russian trench lines, and penetrating these lines requires more than just moving a battalion of tanks over them; it necessitates a coordinated attack with infantry to identify targets, tanks firing on those positions, and artillery providing cover and support. This integrated use of weapons is the backbone of U.S. military combat operations, and the focus of the most intensive training in the U.S. army.
While the tanks have garnered attention, military analysts say an important part of the recent donations from the West may be the 109 Bradley combat vehicles being sent by the United States, along with a large number of artillery pieces that European allies will supply. These tanks are likely to be integrated with German Leopard tanks to help create new Ukrainian armored units. Upon receiving the full package of Western equipment, Kyiv could potentially form up to three additional brigades.
Michael Kofman, a Russia studies expert at the Center for Naval Analyses in Washington, stated: "The most important part of the package is the armored combat vehicles, artillery, and precision-guided munitions. The small numbers of promised tanks are the least important element of that." To ensure that the Ukrainian army can implement such maneuvers, increased training from the U.S. and Europe will be required. For months, the U.S. has avoided sending complex new systems to Ukraine that require new training. This stance is changing now. First, the U.S. sent artillery pieces, then longer-range missile systems, and recently the Patriot battery systems, all of which require training outside Ukraine.
The hesitance initially stemmed partly from concerns over pulling Ukrainian soldiers off the battlefield, as well as worries that the Kremlin would perceive U.S. training of Ukrainian soldiers as a direct provocation. However, with ongoing training for the Patriot missile defense systems in Oklahoma and instruction on intensive maneuver warfare taking place at a U.S. training site in Germany, initial fears have faded, as acknowledged by U.S. military officials.
This isn’t the first time the U.S. has engaged in this type of training. The U.S. attempted, and failed, to teach the Iraqi army, and to a lesser extent the Afghan army, these techniques. However, Ukraine has repeatedly proven its technical capabilities, and its military has shown great enthusiasm in learning how to use new equipment.
Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University, remarked: "The Ukrainians have a major, professional military that has been fighting the Russians for years and years, and they received Western training up until 2022. They are not starting from scratch there." He added, "Armies with the right motivation and the right kind of command structure adapt and learn very quickly. There is a belief that armies never change. That is nonsense. They can change very quickly when properly motivated and organized."
Some analysts believe that the single most effective weapon the U.S. can provide Ukraine is precision-guided munitions. The Ukrainian army focuses, through training and imitation, on artillery. This expertise has allowed them to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) quickly and effectively to strike Russian ammunition depots and command centers. Russia has adjusted its operations, withdrawing its logistics centers beyond HIMARS range. A longer-range, more advanced missile, such as the ATACMS system, could hit those targets. However, for now, weapons that could strike deep into Russia are off the table, viewed as potentially provoking Putin. While the U.S. has been open to the idea of providing Ukraine with more powerful weaponry throughout the conflict, it has remained firm on this point.
U.S. officials have acknowledged that the true strength of the 31 Abrams tanks that the U.S. announced it would send to Ukraine would open the door to additional donations of German Leopard 2 tanks, as well as more artillery and infantry fighting vehicles. However, it is unlikely that the new donations alone will bolster combat power enough for Ukraine to win the war, but officials and outside analysts say they will help significantly. Tanks would breach trench lines, opening a path for infantry in Bradley fighting vehicles to seize and reclaim territory.
Additionally, tanks send important signals to both Ukraine and Russia regarding ongoing U.S. support. For Russia, the tanks demonstrate that the flow of weapons from the West is on the rise and not diminishing. For Ukraine, it constitutes a significant morale boost, as stated by Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official now at the New American Security Center, who added: "It's a vote of confidence that people are still invested in Ukraine's reclaiming its territory rather than pushing it toward negotiations."
