The political arena is experiencing unprecedented tension that goes beyond the disagreements related to the presidential election, particularly with the deadlock in dialogue and consensus over electing a president. According to a ministerial source, it is difficult for the caretaker government to address the successive crises, even minimally, if the presidential vacancy persists and paralysis in the country deepens.
The source believes that the race between the available makeshift solutions for the government and a significant collapse is an uneven contest, especially as the intensity of the recent unrest has unfolded, marked by some politicians and representatives resorting to inflammatory rhetoric that appeals to factional and sectarian instincts.
The source hopes that this atmosphere is part of mutual pressures aimed at reaching a presidential settlement. However, he fears that without any serious signs of such a settlement, the mobilizing and populist rhetoric from some political parties may escalate to more serious and dangerous consequences.
In his opinion, the recent controversy over timing would not have occurred had some not fanned the flames of the presidential crisis in an attempt to impose a framework that goes beyond the competition between one or two candidates, particularly after the Shiite duo announced their support for Sleiman Frangieh's nomination. Where are the efforts to elect a president now?
According to available information, translating the outcomes of the Iranian-Saudi agreement positively onto the Lebanese situation and the presidential election is postponed until after priorities are arranged and implemented at the level of restoring bilateral relations, which will be solidified during the upcoming meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries in Ramadan, or in terms of placing the Yemeni file on a path toward de-escalation before resolution.
Since the announcement of the Beijing agreement, no positive developments have occurred in local Lebanese interactions regarding the presidential election. Instead of seizing the positive atmosphere of this agreement and capitalizing on the opportunity it provides, it has been observed that some Lebanese parties have become more entrenched as long as the regional and international picture remains unclear.
A parliamentary source from the Shiite duo indicates that the other party has not taken any steps to meet the nomination for Frangieh since our support for his candidacy was announced. Instead of adopting new rules for engagement with the evolving phase, part of them remains adamant about dealing with the presidential election according to the "tools" previously used during the 11 election sessions. The other part has preoccupied itself with spinning in circles, raising the banner of a third option without presenting the name of a single candidate.
The source criticizes both the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement, stating that before the Shiite duo announced their candidate, they did not engage or respond to the repeated invitations for dialogue issued by President Nabih Berri, nor have they been able to agree on a single candidate among themselves.
He notes the failure of Bkerke's efforts as well to unify the Christian position around a single candidate after lists of names were proposed for this purpose.
In the source's view, the only candidate that remains a common denominator for these parties so far is the paralysis and shutdown of the country under the banner of prioritizing the election of a president, pointing out that what we have witnessed recently contributes to creating a charged atmosphere that aims to almost completely paralyze government work and hinder the legislative council from passing important and urgent laws.
He indicates that we have recently seen an increase in populist rhetoric and competition among these parties, which contributes to further expanding the paralysis and disruption in the country, considering they remain divided and disagreeing over the presidential election even when they united during the "hour war."
In this context, recent manifestations and positions have emerged that raise concerns that this escalating atmosphere may lead to tensions and sectarian mobilization, exacerbating the collapse and resulting in unpredictable consequences.
There is concern that the arena may witness more such positions and manifestations that complicate finding solutions to the presidential crisis, especially in light of the absence of ready external solutions following the differences that surfaced during the Paris five-party meeting and other discussions.
According to a knowledgeable political source, there are developments and manifestations that have recently begun to emerge, warning of a serious risk of a major explosion that could occur before the election of a president unless addressed both internally and externally.
The source enumerates the elements that could contribute to the explosion, the most notable being: 1- Total paralysis of government work, leading the country to greater chaos and lawlessness on various levels. One minister stated that the Cabinet can hold a session at any time to address public sector salary issues, but the recent climate of tension and political mobilization is discouraging. 2- Disruption of the legislative council and its sessions. 3- Deterioration of the social situation for Lebanese citizens, along with declines for those working in the public sector, both military and civilian, in addition to retirees. 4- Continued paralysis in administrations and public sectors, with the risk of municipalities and mayors' terms ending without elections or extending current councils beyond the election of a president. 5- Increased incidents and unrest in the streets despite the significant and successful role of the army and security forces in preserving public stability.
