The Wagner crisis with the Russian president ended with the mediation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, but many questions remain about the future of this group and its relationship with Moscow, its main supporter.
Wagner fighters continue their withdrawal today, Sunday, after having cut off most roads to Moscow, reducing the risk of a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. This move, according to the group's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, is meant to avoid bloodshed. A video published by the Russian media agency on Telegram showed Prigozhin leaving a military headquarters in Rostov in a sports car.
Prigozhin, a former ally of Putin and head of the Wagner Group, stated that his men had reached 200 kilometers from the capital. Moscow had previously deployed troops in anticipation of the arrival of Wagner fighters and urged residents to stay indoors. Footage showed Wagner troops taking control of the city of Rostov in southern Russia before marching across the country, transporting tanks and armored trucks while breaking through barriers set to stop them. A Reuters witness reported that Wagner fighters loaded tanks onto trailers last night and began withdrawing from the military base in Rostov they had seized.
Prigozhin, dressed in full combat gear in an undisclosed location in a video, said, "Within 24 hours, we were 200 kilometers away from Moscow. At this time, not a drop of blood has been shed by any of our fighters." He added, "We understand that Russian blood will be spilled from one side, so we decided to return our fighters to the field camps as planned."
The Belarusian presidential office stated that President Lukashenko mediated an agreement to de-escalate the situation with Wagner fighters in Russia after obtaining Putin's approval in exchange for guarantees of their safety. His office did not provide further details. So far, Putin has not made any statements regarding the agreement. In contrast, Russia announced the lifting of all restrictions imposed prior to the outbreak of the crisis.
The rapid rebellion of the Wagner Group seemed to develop without any significant response from the regular armed forces in Russia, raising questions about how tightly Putin controls power in the nuclear-armed state even after the sudden halt of Wagner's advance. Prigozhin had earlier claimed that the so-called "March for Justice" aimed to oust Russia's corrupt and incompetent leaders, whom he blamed for the failures of the war in Ukraine.
In a televised speech from the Kremlin earlier, Putin stated that there was a real threat facing Russia. He said, "We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to exist of Russia, this country with a history spanning a thousand years," and vowed to punish anyone who "orchestrated an armed rebellion."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Wagner rebellion exposed chaos in Russia. He said in a video address, "The world can see today that the masters of Russia do not control anything. This means absolutely nothing. Just total chaos and a lack of predictability."
Footage showed armored personnel carriers and two trucks carrying tanks moving 50 kilometers outside the town of Voronezh, which is about halfway to Moscow.
Will a civil war break out?
Prigozhin is a former convict leading a private army comprising thousands of ex-prisoners recruited from Russian jails. His men have fought in the fiercest battles during the ongoing war in Ukraine for 16 months, such as the protracted battle for control of the eastern city of Bakhmut.
For months, Prigozhin has criticized senior officers in the regular army, accusing them of incompetence and withholding ammunition from his fighters. This month, he defied orders to sign a contract placing his forces under the command of the Ministry of Defense. He appeared to launch a rebellion after accusing the army of killing many of his fighters in an airstrike, a claim denied by the Defense Ministry.
He stated that he had taken the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District in Rostov without firing a single shot. Rostov serves as the main supply hub for Russian invasion forces. Residents of the city captured footage on their mobile phones of Wagner fighters aboard armored vehicles and battle tanks stationed in various locations.
One tank had "Siberia" painted in red on the front, clearly indicating their intent to invade all of Russia. Moscow witnessed increased security presence in the streets, and Red Square was closed off with metal barriers. A woman from Rostov asked the fighters who had seized the city, "Will a civil war break out?" One fighter replied, "No, everything will be fine."
The area surrounding Rostov is an important hub for oil, gas, and grain. In a series of sharp messages overnight, Prigozhin demanded Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov come to meet him in Rostov. Later, Russian media reported that Prigozhin and all his fighters had left the Russian military headquarters in the city.
### Ukraine Attacks Near Bakhmut
Western capitals have stated they are closely monitoring the situation in nuclear-armed Russia. President Joe Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with counterparts from the G7 nations. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley canceled a scheduled trip to the Middle East due to the situation in Russia. The British Defense Ministry referred to the events as "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in modern times."
The rebellion threatened to plunge Russian invasion forces in Ukraine into chaos, while Kyiv launched its strongest counteroffensive since the war began in February of last year. The Ukrainian army reported progress near Bakhmut, on the eastern front, and in an area further south. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces launched an attack near a cluster of villages surrounding Bakhmut, which was captured by Wagner forces in May after months of fighting. Maliar stated, "We have made progress in all these areas."
Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the southern front, noted that Ukrainian forces liberated an area near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since separatist forces backed by Moscow seized it in 2014.
