The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, has completed the announcement of the lines of his initiative, clarifying that he calls for a dialogue "in good faith to ensure that the quorum is not disrupted," followed by electoral sessions regardless of the success or failure of the dialogue. Berri's new announcement, according to the logic of "good faith," acts as a new initiative towards those opposed to the dialogue. If met positively, this may open a window of hope on the horizon despite all the surrounding political pessimism.
While Berri continues to shuffle the cards, the position of the Progressive Socialist Party leader, MP Taymour Jumblatt, remains clear and unchanged. He has been calling for dialogue since the onset of the crisis, especially since the presidential dialogue approach was initially opened by Walid Jumblatt in August 2022 and continues to be so. The position of Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi, calling for engagement in dialogue, has had a positive impact, which Jumblatt has grasped, directing his greetings to the patriarch. He pointed out that "any confrontational option will lead us to new tragedies, after which we will return to dialogue, which is unavoidable. The better choice is to stop wasting time and accumulating disasters, and to engage in serious dialogue to exit the crisis."
While the details that prompted Berri to opt for consecutive sessions have not yet emerged, and whether there is a preliminary agreement between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah remains unclear, his invitation, if met, will undoubtedly change the existing status quo. Additionally, the visit of the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian is expected in a few days, but the atmosphere around his initiative will be unclear, as his next destination will be Saudi Arabia to assume his new role as President of the French Development Agency in Al-Ula, and it remains unknown where Lebanon will stand on his list of priorities.
In this context, wide-ranging sources indicate an "Arab and international trend to end the presidential vacancy in Lebanon," especially after the acting Governor of the Banque du Liban, Wassim Mansouri, sounded the alarm by announcing his commitment to the central bank's decision not to lend the government in dollars or Lebanese pounds, thus compelling it to manage its affairs independently. In an interview with the electronic newspaper "Anbaa," these sources noted that "Qatar may be willing to assist Lebanon financially and by encouraging investments in it, provided that all political forces show flexibility and concessions in favor of ending the vacancy in the presidency."
The sources conveyed information from the five countries working to end the crisis in Lebanon, stating that "their foreign ministers will hold a meeting soon to follow up on developments in Lebanon, a topic discussed during the meeting in Diman between Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi and Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari." The sources reported that "the Qatari movement towards the political forces is focused on three names: Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, MP Ni'mat Afram, and former Minister Ziyad Baroud, who participated in a Mar Mikhael Mass the day before yesterday, and is noted for his relationship with MP Gebran Bassil, which could have presidential implications."
In terms of positions, member of the "National Moderation" bloc, MP Ahmad Rustom, described Berri's call for dialogue as "a good step," revealing in an interview with "Anbaa" electronic newspaper that "the bloc supports dialogue and sees no alternative to it, as it is impossible to agree on a president without dialogue and consensus on how to rescue the country." He noted that "the names are no longer as important to the bloc as rescuing the country from its crisis, and that the democratic process should take its course in bringing forth the deserving candidate for the presidency." While he pointed out the "impossibility of electing the army commander as that requires a constitutional amendment," he considered that "only two candidates remain, Suleiman Frangieh and Jihad Azour, and it is up to Berri to set a date for the voting session so we can elect one of them." Regarding his opinion on the refusal to engage in dialogue, he stated that "this means continuing the crisis. Is it reasonable not to know our interests as MPs?" He called for a "change in mindsets among some bloc leaders," and stressed that reaching a solution seems unlikely before knowing the fate of the dialogue between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, while emphasizing the importance of "the Saudi role in resolving the presidential crisis and saving Lebanon, and the necessity of converging on a capable figure to pull Lebanon from its crisis."
There are significant bets placed on Berri's insistence on holding consecutive sessions in September. These sessions will reveal the true positions of each team and their capabilities, potentially obliging everyone to engage in dialogue, even within the electoral sessions, to reach a minimum consensus.
