Economic and financial sources have unanimously confirmed that "Lebanon's economy cannot withstand the repercussions of any new war with Israel that breaks out in the south and extends across the country. The economy is lacking immunity, and the means for resilience are very few." The sources mentioned several points as follows:
1. **Fragile Monetary Stability:** The unstable monetary situation will be affected, and the dollar will begin to rise again. The cost of war is high and requires resources that are currently unavailable, which may force the state to access the remaining dollars in the Central Bank (around $7 billion), which are meager rights remaining for depositors and others.
2. **Funding Shortages:** Lebanon is experiencing a shortage in financing, and if a war against Israel occurs, it will suffer more if a Western decision is made to impose restrictions. Consequently, remittances from expatriates, which are now the remaining lifeline for the survival of hundreds of thousands of families, would be affected.
3. **Infrastructure Destruction:** Israel will target infrastructure, as it did in the 2006 war, possibly with even greater ferocity this time, knowing that such infrastructure is dilapidated and in a state of disrepair due to the crisis and lack of funding for maintenance. Lebanon may find it difficult to secure funding for reconstruction for geopolitical punitive reasons.
4. **Inflation and Poverty Increase:** Due to the potential additional monetary collapse, inflation will rise further, poverty will increase, and more segments of society will fall into the trap of losing purchasing power.
5. **Tourism Sector Impact:** If the situation escalates, the airport may be bombed, delivering a severe blow to the tourism sector and its institutions, which, alongside remittances, represent a seasonal lifeline during the summer and holiday seasons.
6. **Increased Financial Losses:** If Lebanon is already suffering losses exceeding $70 billion due to the banking crisis, this amount will certainly increase to an unbearable level for many years ahead.
7. **Mass Displacement:** Should the war escalate and prolong, southern areas and other regions will witness the displacement of hundreds of thousands, a situation that the collapsing state services cannot manage, heralding chaos with dangerous social ramifications.
8. **Offshore Drilling Disruption:** An expanded war that includes maritime operations, alongside land and aerial conflict, will inevitably halt drilling operations in Block 9, driving foreign companies to abandon this investment indefinitely due to the rising risks.
9. **Supply Chain Disruptions:** If Israel targets facilities and ports, the supply of consumer goods and citizens’ needs will be interrupted, potentially leading to shortages in food, medicine, and other essentials, knowing that Lebanon imports 80% of its consumption needs.
10. **Complete State Collapse:** Due to the potential destruction and additional economic collapse, state revenues will shrink to low levels, taking with them all its administrative, social, and security services... resulting in the total collapse of the state as a whole.
